Poll: Donald Trump Holds Majority of Support in Iowa GOP Caucus

A majority of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers back former President Donald Trump over his rivals for the GOP nomination, as he enjoys a 37-point lead over his nearest competitor, according to a poll.

The CIVIQs poll conducted for Iowa State University (ISU) shows that Trump leads with 51 percent support in the Hawkeye State. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) sits in second place, with fourteen percent, while former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) also cracks double digits at ten percent. 

Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy’s nine percent is good enough for fourth place, and he is followed by Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), though the ISU News Service does not report Scott’s exact figure of support. While the field is much deeper than just five candidates, further results were unspecified regarding voters’ first choices. 

“The race right now is clearly President Trump, a small second tier of four candidates — DeSantis, Haley, Ramaswamy, and Scott — and then a lot of candidates without much support at all,” ISU Political Science Professor Dave Peterson told the ISU News Service.

“Trump’s lead is strong, but it also might be something of a ceiling because most Iowans have strong opinions about him,” he added. 

This appears to be the first Iowa GOP caucus poll to show Trump above 50 percent of support in the crowded field, though he has often eclipsed it in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups, according to FiveThirtyEight’s aggregation of Iowa polls. 

The poll also finds former Vice President Mike Pence and former Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ), two of the staunchest Trump critics in the field, to be the least desirable candidates. When asked whom they would not support, more than 30 percent of respondents said they were opposed to Christie, and 20 percent reported being opposed to Pence. Trump also approaches 20 percent on this front.

“Christie and Pence are in terrible shape,” Peterson told the ISU News Service.

In looking at caucusgoers’ second-choice candidates, DeSantis holds a slim lead, with 21 percent viewing him as a backup plan. Ramaswamy follows closely behind with 18 percent. Another 16 percent see Scott as their second choice, while 13 percent choose Trump and 11 percent choose Haley.

CIVIQs sampled 1,128 registered voters, including 434 likely GOP caucusgoers, from September 2 to 7, online. The margin of error for the GOP caucus portion of the poll is ± 5.8 percentage points.