Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are locked in a dead heat in Pennsylvania, but Trump has the edge in approval rating, according to polling.
The Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll conducted for the Republican PAC, Early Vote Action, finds Trump and Harris tied at 48 percent apiece in a two-way race for the presidency. Another four percent are undecided:
Thank you for posting our @EarlyVoteAction commissioned poll.
— ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) August 5, 2024
It’s important to note that 41% of this poll is from the Philly market.
Also, the sample is 44% Democrat & 42% Republican.
I included the entire memo. pic.twitter.com/3V7o1nKVo5
The pair are neck and neck with independents at 44 percent apiece; 12 percent of the demographic are undecided. Trump wins 93 percent of Republican respondents and 7 percent of Democrats, while Harris earns 89 percent of Democrat support and 5 percent of Republican support.
Early Vote Action’s Scott Pressler emphasized that 41 percent of the poll was conducted in the Philadelphia market, and there was an oversampling of Democrats to Republicans: 44 percent to 42 percent.
The poll was first shared on X by Politico National Correspondent Meredith McGraw.
In the larger field, which includes Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates, Trump and Harris tie at 45 percent. Kennedy garners four percent, and the Green Party’s Jill Stein, Libertarian Chase Oliver, and independent Cornel West combine for two percent.
The share of undecided voters climbs to five percent in this scenario, while Trump loses a greater amount of independent support than Harris does. Harris earns 39 percent, Trump takes 33 percent, and a significant 13 percent breaks for Kennedy.
The 45th president has a noticeable advantage over Harris in job approval. Of the respondents, 51 percent approved of his performance during his administration, versus 48 percent who disapproved—marking a net +3 percent rating for the former president.
Harris, on the other hand, has a -7 net rating, with 43 percent of respondents approving of her vice presidential performance and 50 percent disapproving.
Trump also holds a narrow lead in favorability in the Keystone State. Of the respondents, 47 percent find him favorable, while 46 percent say Harris is favorable. Exactly half of respondents see Trump as unfavorable, while 51 percent see Harris in a negative light.
The survey sampled 600 voters from July 29-August 1 and has a margin of error of ±4 percent. Its publication coincided with sharp drops in major stock market indexes, which Trump is branding the “KAMALA CRASH.”
