Poll: Donald Trump Leads Joe Biden Nationally

Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden nationally, a recent Messenger/Harris poll found.

The survey, taken October 16-23, 2023, among 3,029 registered voters, found Trump leading Biden nationally by four points — 45 percent to 41 percent. Notably, Biden’s lead is well outside of the survey’s ± 1.8 percent margin of error.

Trump’s lead reduces slightly when third-party candidates are brought into the mix. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. garners 13 percent support, while Green Party candidate Cornel West sees two percent support. In that scenario, Trump sees 38 percent of the vote, with Biden coming three points behind with 35 percent support.

Even with third-party candidates involved, Trump sees 28 percent of the vote among independents, followed by 26 percent who back Biden and 20 percent who back Kennedy.

Drtian Nesho, CEO and chief pollster at HarrisX, noted that Kennedy’s presence appears to affect Trump more negatively than Biden.

“As an Independent candidate, RFK Jr. pulls equal numbers of 2020 Trump and Biden voters and wins the lion’s share of undecided Independents, hurting Trump more than Biden in the process and thus making the horserace closer,” Nesho said.

Further, the survey showed Trump as the runaway frontrunner in the GOP primary race, leading by 50 points with 61 percent support.

The concerns regarding Kennedy’s effect on the race have been demonstrated in other polls as well. The latest USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll, for instance, found Trump and Biden tying nationally with 37 percent support each in a four-man race between Trump, Biden, Kennedy, and West.

As Breitbart News reported:

While Democrats have been wary of third party runs and how they could affect Biden, given Green Party candidate Jill Stein’s negative impact on Hillary Clinton in 2016, this survey shows Biden taking a one-point edge over Trump in a three-man race between himself, Trump, and RFK Jr., without West. In that scenario, Biden has 38 percent support, followed by Trump with 37 percent and RFK Jr. with 13 percent. However, the roles reverse when RFK Jr. is taken out of the race and replaced solely with West. In that scenario, Trump leads Biden by two points, with 41 percent support. Biden follows with 39 percent, followed by West in the single digits with seven percent support.

An Echelon Insights survey released in October showed RFK Jr.’s presence as an independent actually helping Trump rather than Biden, with Trump’s lead over Biden increasing.