Poll: Donald Trump Neck-and-Neck with Joe Biden in Key Swing States Post-Conviction

Former President Donald Trump is neck-and-neck with President Joe Biden in key swing states post-conviction, according to the latest FAUPolitical Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab/Mainstreet Research survey, released Tuesday.

The survey was fielded May 30-31, 2024. Notably, news of the Manhattan jury finding Trump guilty on all 34 counts in his business records trial came out Thursday afternoon, on May 30, meaning at least half of the survey was fielded after the determination.

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The survey found Trump edging out Biden in two key swing states head-to-head — Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. In Wisconsin, Trump leads Biden by one percentage point — 41 percent to Biden’s 40 percent — among likely voters. However, Biden takes the lead when third-party candidates are included.

In Pennsylvania, Trump takes a two-point edge over Biden among likely voters, garnering 47 percent support to Biden’s 45 percent support in the Keystone State.

The results are close in Michigan, as well, as the two are tied among all voters. Biden, however, takes a one-point lead among likely voters, 47 percent to Trump’s 46 percent support.

The margin of error for the entire poll is ± three percent, meaning Trump and Biden’s head-to-head results are all within the margin of error, making it a virtual tie.

DukhongKim, Ph.D., associate professor of political science at Florida Atlantic University (FAU), observed that “neither side has a meaningful advantage in any of the three states at this time.”

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Biden edged Trump out in the battleground states in 2020, taking Wisconsin by 0.7 percent, Pennsylvania by 1.2 percent, and Michigan by 2.8 percent.

While Trump has vowed to fight back, many in the Trump world believe these continued instances of lawfare will backfire on the left.

“I think a lot of just normal people, they don’t pay attention to politics as closely as you and I do. They’re saying, ‘Enough is enough. We’ve had it. This is crazy, and we’re gonna fight back,’” Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), a possible vice president contender for Trump, told Breitbart News Saturday.