Poll: Donald Trump Opens Up Six-Point Lead over Joe Biden in Wisconsin

Former President Donald Trump has taken a six-point lead over President Joe Biden in a deeper field in Wisconsin, according to an AARP/Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research poll.

The poll, conducted after Biden’s disastrous debate performance in late June and published Tuesday, finds that 44 percent of the likely voters sampled in Wisconsin back Trump in a five-way race, while 38 percent support Biden.

Independent candidate Robert F. Kenedy Jr. lands in third place with nine percent of backing, followed by the Green Party’s Jill Stein at three percent and Libertarian Chase Oliver at one percent. Another five percent of respondents are undecided.

Trump has the edge over Biden among independent voters, 36 percent to 31 percent, while 24 percent of the demographic’s support splinters between third-party candidates.

What is more, Trump has a clear advantage over Biden in terms of support within their own parties. Of Republican respondents, 93 percent are behind Trump. Conversely, 86 percent of Democrats are behind Biden, showing an enthusiasm gap between the men among their own bases. Two percent of Democrats say they would vote for Trump, and one percent of Republicans would break for Biden.

Trump maintains a strong advantage over the president in a two-way race. The 45th president garners 50 percent of the respondents in this scenario, placing him five points above Biden, who draws 45 percent. Trump’s edge with independents dwindles slightly to a net four points. He enjoys a 97-point advantage with Republican voters, up from 92 percent in the five-way race, while Biden’s lead with Democrats rises to a net 91 points, up from 84 percent in the deeper field.

The poll also gauged the temperature of the Badger States’s Senate race, where Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) faces Republican businessman Eric Hovde. Baldwin takes 50 percent of support to Hovde’s 45 percent. She holds a 13-point edge with independents.

The survey, which AARP commissioned, was conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research from June 28 to July 2, 2024. It includes samples from 600 likely voters, and the margin of error is ± four percentage points.