Former President Trump is now leading Vice President Harris for the first time in an election forecast, a poll released Sunday shows, as the 2024 contest shapes as potentially the closest presidential run-off this century.
The news was contained in a Decision Desk HQ/The Hill election forecast for this cycle.
The model predicts Trump has a 52 percent chance of reclaiming the presidency while Harris has a 42 percent chance of entering the White House, as of Sunday. A report in the Hill sets out the change in prospects for the two protagonists:
Since late August, the election forecast put Harris’s chances of winning at approximately 54 to 56 percent, with Trump’s chances at approximately 44 to 46 percent. In early October, however, those dynamics began to shift, and the election forecast predicted both candidates’ chances to be closer to 50 percent.
On Oct. 17, the model predicted the two candidates were equally likely to win next month, and Trump took the advantage on Oct. 20.
The report goes on to note the shift in election forecast “coincides with the Republican candidate’s improved polling averages in Wisconsin and Michigan, two battleground states that previously leaned slightly toward Harris. Trump already had a slim advantage in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.”
Of the seven swing states seen as decisive in determining the outcome of the 2024 election, Pennsylvania is alone in still favoring Harris in its polling average, the hill concludes.
Despite the closeness of the contest Harris will reportedly not be campaigning with her soon-to-be former boss going into Election Day.
As Breitbart News reported, three Harris campaign officials confirmed to NBC News the Harris campaign has no plans for Biden to appear alongside his vice president on the campaign trail.
The officials said Biden will instead be working behind the scenes to leverage some of his “longtime political relationships, specifically with labor leaders, and holding official White House events that highlight his administration’s record.”
