Poll: Kari Lake Leads Hypothetical Arizona Senate GOP Primary; Kyrsten Sinema Hurts Republicans in General

Kari Lake holds a double-digit advantage in a hypothetical Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Arizona, while Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) — who defected from the Democrat Party last year — appears to hurt Republicans rather than Democrats if she launches a third-party run, per a poll. 

The Emerson College Polling survey shows that 42 percent of those who plan to vote in Arizona’s GOP primary for the U.S. Senate would back Lake for the nomination if she ran. Lake, who was last year’s GOP gubernatorial nominee in the Grand Canyon State, told Breitbart News Saturday last month she is considering a bid for Sinema’s seat.

Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who launched his candidacy in April, sits in second place with eleven percent support, followed by last year’s Donald-Trump-backed GOP Senate nominee, Blake Masters, with seven percent support. 

Another five percent of respondents back Abe Hamadeh, last year’s GOP nominee for attorney general who lost his race by just 512 votes. Jim Lamon and Brian Wright tie at two percent, and Robert Walker earns one percent. Nearly a third of respondents are either undecided or back someone else. 

In the Democrat primary, Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Alexander Keller 48 percent to six percent. Another 40 percent of respondents are undecided, while six percent would back another candidate. 

In a hypothetical general election race between declared candidates Gallego and Lamb, the pair tie at 42 percent with another 16 percent of the vote up for grabs. 

While Sinema has not announced, she is reportedly preparing for a reelection bid, setting up the dynamic for a three-way race between herself and the two eventual party nominees.

In a hypothetical three-person race between the senator, Lamb, and Gallego, Gallego leads the way with 36 percent. Lamb lands in second place with 29 percent, and Sinema secures 21 percent. 

In this scenario, Sinema siphons roughly 21 percent of the GOP vote but takes less than ten percent of the Democrats’ vote share, according to Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball. 

The survey sampled 1,337 registered voters in Arizona between August 2-4. The credibility interval is ± 2.6 percentage points.