More Americans believe former President Donald Trump will emerge as the victor over President Joe Biden in November, a survey conducted by the Economist/YouGov in late April found.
The poll, taken April 28-30, 2024, among 1,755 U.S. adult citizens, asked respondents to reveal whom they believe will win in a 2024 matchup with Trump and Biden, regardless of whom they personally prefer.
Across the board, 42 percent believe Trump will win that matchup. Biden falls nine points behind, as 33 percent believe he will emerge as the victor. One quarter remain unsure.
Republicans remain more confident in Trump than Democrats are in Biden, as 80 percent of Republicans said Trump will win, compared to 69 percent of Democrats who said the same of Biden.
Trump also has a double-digit lead among independents; 37 percent believe Trump will win, compared to 24 percent who believe Biden will score a second term. Another 39 percent remain unsure.
The survey also found that more Biden voters are voting “AGAINST” Trump rather than “FOR” Biden, while most Trump voters, 70 percent, are voting “FOR” Trump, compared to 28 percent who are voting “AGAINST” Biden.
The survey coincides with several others showing Trump leading Biden across several swing states. A Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll released in April, for instance, showed Trump leading Biden in six of seven swing states:
Georgia: Trump: 49 percent (+6) Biden: 43 percent
Wisconsin: Trump: 48 percent (+4) Biden: 44 percent
North Carolina: Trump: 51 percent (+10) Biden: 41 percent
Pennsylvania: Trump: 47 percent (+1) Biden: 46 percent
Arizona: Trump: 49 percent (+7) Biden: 42 percent
Nevada: Trump: 51 percent (+8) Biden: 43 percent
Biden edges Trump in only one swing state, Michigan: (+2)
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C-SPAN