Poll: Over Half of Senior Canadians Want Liberal Government, Youth Skew Conservative

A poll this week showed over half of Canadians above the age of 55 intended to vote for the leftist Liberal Party in Canada’s April general election, the National Post reported on Thursday, while the Conservatives enjoy a modest lead among those aged 18-54.

The poll, published by the firm Leger and the Canadian Press, is not the only one that has recently identified elderly Canadians as the most reliable leftist voting bloc this election. A separate poll published on Wednesday by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) found that, while Liberals lead generally, the Liberals’ largest lead was among Canadians over the age of 65, while they reain statistically tied with Conservatives among younger demographics.

The CBC News average of polls, last updated on Thursday, shows unelected Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney attracting 40.2 percent of voter intentions, while Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, his closest challenger, receiving 37.3 percent. The Liberals’ poll performance is an impressive inversion of what surveys indicated in January, when former Liberal Party leader and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he would resign, ultimately ceding the top position to Carney.

Trudeau left power after his party turned against him for appearing insufficiently assertive in conversations with American President Donald Trump – and, as a result, significantly damaging the party’s popularity. In January, Poilievre’s Conservatives were trouncing the Liberals with 20-point leads, defeating the Liberals and the nation’s other major left-wing party, the New Democrats (NDP), combined.

The erosion of support in the Conservatives appears to be a response, observers have noted, to President Trump threatening repeatedly threatening to annex Canada – and Liberals’ attempt to brand Poilievre a Trump supporter. In reality, Poilievre has been campaigning against annexation and American tariffs for months and Trump himself declared in a recent interview that he would prefer a Liberal prime minister in Canada, describing Poilievre as acting “stupidly.”

The age divide highlighted by the National Post presents another dynamic evolving in the Canadian electorate. The Leger poll in question found that 52 percent of Canadians over 55 intended to vote for Carney, while only 34 percent supported the Conservatives. In contrast, the Conservatives held a modest lead over Liberals in the age groups 18 to 24 and 35 to 54. The lead in the younger set was documented as essentially within the margin of error – 39 percent support for Conservatives compared to 37 percent for the Liberals. Among Millennial voters – ages 35 to 54 – 42 percent said they supported Poilievre’s party over Carney’s.

In total, 44 percent of respondents told Leger they support the Liberals, compared to 38 percent supporting Conservatives, a noticeable widening of the Liberal lead that was, and remains in some polls, within the margin of error.

The Leger poll is not along in documenting this demographic distinction. A poll published on Wednesday by Liaison Strategies and conducted for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) found the biggest lead for Liberals to be in the ages 65 and up demographic. About 41 percent of respondents over 65 said they supported the Liberals, compared to 30 percent for the Conservatives. The two parties were tied among voters aged 35 to 49 at 34 percent each, while the Liberals took a modest lead with voters aged 18 to 34 at 39 percent to 37 percent.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, noted that senior voters were “a crucial voting bloc” for Carney’s support – and observed that Poilievre was adjusting his messaging to target those voters.

“Any movement in that demographic could be key in helping the Conservatives close the gap,” Valentin observed.

Writing at the National Post, Tristin Hopper described Liberal support as a “boomer” phenomenon – and growing Conservative support from the young as something novel that can be traced back to when Poilievre took over the party.

“It’s a trend that’s been showing up in polls ever since 2022, when Pierre Poilievre first won the leadership of the Conservative Party. Poilievre’s leadership campaign focused heavily on the issue of housing unaffordability,” Hopper wrote. “In one Ipsos polls from April 2024, 90 per cent of Gen Z respondents and 82 per cent of Millennials said they thought Canadian homeownership was now solely the domain of the rich.”

Housing costs is an issue almost entirely absent from Carney’s campaign, which is focusing on the alleged threat of President Trump and on supporting labor unions and blue-collar workers.

Poilievre, in contrast, has focused on improving the domestic economy, attacking Carney for having a resume extensively connected to the financial elite, and attacking Trump’s tariffs.

“We will be there for you,” Poilievre said in remarks on Wednesday addressing “Canadian families.”

“And we will unite as Canadians to protect our affected sectors. Now is the time to take back control and relaunch our economy so that we can confront President Trump’s unjustified threats and tariffs from a position of strength. We will do this for our people, for our land, for our home, for Canada first for a change,” he promised.

Canadians will go to the polls on April 28.

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