Republican Tim Sheehy has taken a forceful eight-point lead over Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) in Montana’s U.S. Senate race, according to a Fabrizio Ward/David Binder Research poll for AARP.
The poll, published Thursday, finds Sheehy leading the full ballot with 49 percent support, while 41 percent back Tester. Another four percent prefer Libertarian Party candidate Sid Daoud, while the Green Party’s Michael Downey garners one percent support. Four percent are undecided.
In a hypothetical two-way race between Sheehy and Tester, Sheehy takes a 51 percent majority, while Tester gets a bump up to 45 percent, indicating Daoud and Downey’s presence actually hurts Tester. Three percent are up for grabs in this scenario.
Sheehy has a positive favorability rating, with 48 percent viewing him favorably compared to 45 percent who see him negatively. Tester is nine points underwater on the favorability front. Of the respondents, 52 percent say he is unfavorable, while 43 percent have positive perceptions of him. Moreover, Tester has a negative four percent approval rating, with 50 percent giving him negative marks and 46 percent approving of his performance.
The poll sampled 600 likely Montana voters from August 25 to 29, 2024, and the margin of error is ± four percent.
The Montana senate race is one of the best opportunities for Republicans to flip a blue seat red in the 2024 cycle, as Republicans go on offense in a quest to reclaim the Senate majority. Democrats and the independents who caucus with them currently hold a 51-49 seat majority, but the Senate race map in 2024 is highly favorable to the GOP.
Republicans have realistic opportunities to flip ten of the 23 Democrat seats up for election this cycle, while Democrats’ best shots at flipping Republican seats are a tall order. The two best chances for the left are seats held by Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rick Scott (R-FL), illustrating how unlikely Democrats are to gain ground.
With Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV) heading to retirement and Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) the far-and-away favorite to win his seat, Republicans are primed to be at 50 seats so long as Scott and Cruz hold on. From there, a Sheehy win in Montana would put Republicans at 51 seats, and the party has excellent opportunities to expand a majority beyond that, with races in red Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan as several examples.
