An Emerson College/Hill poll published Tuesday showed Republican Senate candidates in competitive positions in hypothetical races in four of five key battleground states early in the general election season.
The poll found Republicans in striking distance or within the margin of error in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while the leading GOP candidate in Nevada, where the Senate race in 2022 was extremely close, faced a single-digit deficit:
ARIZONA
- Rep. Ruben Gallego (D): 45 percent
- Former News Anchor Kari Lake (R): 43 percent
- Undecided: 12 percent
MICHIGAN
- Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D): 42 percent
- Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R): 40 percent
- Undecided: 19 percent
PENNSYLVANIA
- Sen. Bob Casey (D): 46 percent
- Businessman Dave McCormick (R): 42 percent
- Undecided: 12 percent
WISCONSIN
- Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D): 46 percent
- Businessman Eric Hovde (R): 43 percent
NEVADA
- Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) 45 percent
- Ret. Army Captain Sam Brown (R) 37 percent
- Undecided: 18 percent
All polls sampled 1,000 registered voter respondents in each state from April 25-29, 2024, and carry margins of error of ± three percent.
While this group of surveys shows Republicans in strong positions in these critical swing states, it does not include West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio polls, the states where Republicans have arguably three of the best opportunities to flip Democrat seats.
Former President Donald Trump has endorsed candidates in all three states: Gov. Jim Justice in West Virginia, businessman and veteran Tim Sheehy in Montana, and entrepreneur Bernie Moreno in Ohio. He has also endorsed Lake, Rogers, and McCormick.
Democrats and the independents who caucus with them hold a 51-49 seat majority over Republicans in the Senate. However, the electoral battleground highly favors Republicans in 2024, giving them ten realistic opportunities to flip Democrat seats, as Breitbart News has reported.
Conversely, Democrats’ prospects at expanding a majority in this map are so grim that their best opportunities at picking up a Republican seat, albeit unlikely, are in Texas and Florida. Popular GOP incumbents with strong name identification hold those seats — Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rick Scott (R-FL) — underscoring how unfavorable the map is to Democrats and the prime opportunity for the GOP to take a strong majority.
