Former President Donald Trump is within striking distance of President Joe Biden in blue Minnesota, according to a poll taken after his conviction in the Manhattan business records trial.
The Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 poll, published Monday, finds that Biden leads with 45 percent of support among likely voters in a three-way race with Trump and independent Robert Kennedy Jr. Trump garners 41 percent of the response, followed by Kennedy Jr. at 6 percent. Biden’s edge on Trump falls just outside the ± 3.5 percentage point margin of error.
New: President Joe Biden holds a 45-41% lead over former President Donald Trump in Minnesota, according to a new Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll. But GOP voters are more enthusiastic about their candidate, https://t.co/pmlA8YOeWy
— Ryan Faircloth (@RyanFaircloth) June 10, 2024
Another seven percent of respondents are undecided, while two percent would support another candidate.
The four-point margin between Trump and Biden underscores the 45th president’s competitiveness in a state that has gone blue in every presidential election for the past 50 years. Trump nearly won the state in 2016 against twice-failed Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, losing by just 1.5 percentage points.
“Biden’s lead over Trump is driven largely by a 45-point advantage in Hennepin and Ramsey counties,” notes the Star Tribune’s Ryan Faircloth. “Trump leads everywhere else, including in other counties of the Twin Cities area, where he was up 12 percentage points.”
Notably, Hennepin County encompasses a large portion of Minneapolis, while Ramsey County includes neighboring St. Paul.
The pair are neck and neck with independents, though Faircloth did not specify the percentages they secured. Kennedy Jr. followed with 13 percent of independent support.
Although Biden leads, the poll indicates that Trump supporters are significantly more enthused about the 45th president than Biden supporters are for him. A majority of 62 percent of Trump supporters report they are “very” enthusiastic about supporting Trump, while another 21 percent were “somewhat” enthusiastic about supporting him.
Conversly, just 31 percent of Biden backers are “very” enthusiastic about him, and only 36 percent are “somewhat” enthusiastic. A third of Biden voters said they were either “not very” enthused to support him (28 percent) or not excited at all (5 percent).
Just 18 percent of Trump backers are “not very” (14 percent) or “not at all” (4 percent) excited about him.
The poll sampled 800 likely voters in the North Star State between June 3-5.
It comes as Biden faces substantial problems in Minnesota – and elsewhere – as many Democrat voters are upset with his handling of the war between Israel and Hamas, as documented in the uncommitted movement.
On March 15, nearly one in five Democrat primary voters in Minnesota cast protest ballots against Biden by choosing the “uncommitted” option. The uncommitted movement, comprised of Muslims, Arab-Americans, young voters, and far-left progressives, persisted throughout other Democrat nominating contests despite Biden’s demand to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for a ceasefire in the war and threats to withhold aid from Israel.
The threat is these voters will stay home in the general election, which jeopardizes Biden’s reelection prospects in Minnesota and key swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
The Star Tribune spoke to Brandon Nelson, an undecided voter who expressed his disapproval of how the U.S. has handled the war.
“I don’t feel like the United States has shown any sort of moral leadership on that issue whatsoever,” Nelson, who sees the war as the top issue, said. “The ongoing fighting and the thousands and thousands of civilian deaths cannot possibly be our best option.”
He indicated he is unlikely to back any of the top three candidates.
