Poll: Trump Takes Lead in Nebraska’s Second District

Former President Donald Trump has taken the lead in Nebraska’s second district, according to a Public Policy Polling survey.

Nebraska is unique in that it does not award all of the state’s electoral votes to the presidential candidate who wins the statewide vote. Rather, the state deviates from the winner-take-all method, awarding votes based on the congressional district. So hypothetically, a presidential candidate could win across the state but still lose an electoral vote if the opponent won a specific congressional district.

This is not unprecedented, because while Trump won four of Nebraska’s five votes in 2020, President Biden garnered a single electoral vote, winning District 2 by fewer than 23,000 votes.

File/Former President Donald Trump speaks to supporters during a rally at the I-80 Speedway on May 01, 2022 in Greenwood, Nebraska. Trump is supporting Charles Herbster in the Nebraska gubernatorial race. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)

But according to the latest Public Policy Polling survey, that could change in 2024. While Trump leads Biden by 23 points statewide — 57 percent to Biden’s 23 percent — Trump is also edging out Biden in the state’s District 2, 46 percent to 43 percent in a head-to-head matchup.

That three-point advantage remains the same when independent candidates are added to the mix, with Trump leading Biden with 37 percent to the 81 year old’s 34 percent support and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s nine percent.

The survey was taken April 24-25, 2024, among 737 Nebraska voters. It has a +/- 3.6 percent margin of error:

The news follows efforts from conservatives to change the rules in Nebraska, awarding all electoral votes to the statewide winner. Both Trump and Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen (R) backed the effort.

“I am a strong supporter of Senator Lippincott’s winner-take-all bill (LB 764) and have been from the start. It would bring Nebraska into line with 48 of our fellow states, better reflect the founders’ intent, and ensure our state speaks with one unified voice in presidential elections,” Pillen said at the time, calling on Republicans to pass the law for signature:

Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk was among those explaining why the effort is so important.

“Suppose Donald Trump flips Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada next fall, as current polls all show him doing. Would he win the presidency? Not quite. In fact, if Trump flips those three states and no others, he loses by exactly ONE electoral vote Why? Nebraska,” he explained:

However, LB 764, which would reinstate the winner-take-all system, failed in the legislature.