Poll: Vulnerable Democrat Rep. Gabe Vasquez Trails Republican Yvette Herrell in New Mexico

Freshman Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-NM) trails former Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-NM) in a hypothetical 2024 general election matchup in New Mexico’s Second Congressional District, according to a Survey USA poll released this week. 

The poll, conducted between September 6-12 for KOB-TV, shows that 46 percent of likely voter respondents back Herrell in a rematch of the 2022 midterm election, placing her a point above Vasquez at 45 percent. He won in 2022 by just 1,350 votes or .7 percent. 

Survey USA’s poll shows that Republican coalescence behind Herrell is stronger than Democrat support for Vasquez. Herrell secures 91 percent of GOP respondents’ support while she also appeals to 12 percent of Democrats. 

Conversely, just over eight in ten Democrats say they would back Vasquez, and he only dips into seven percent of the GOP base. He appears to remain competitive through his advantage over Herrell among independent voters, where he leads 44 percent to 33 percent, although another 23 percent are undecided. 

Concerning favorability, both candidates have similar net-positive ratings in the single digits. Of the respondents, 38 percent say they hold favorable views of Herrell versus 32 percent who conveyed unfavorable perspectives, giving her a net +6 rating. Just under one in four voters have neutral feelings toward her. 

The poll yielded a net +5 favorability rating for Vasquez, as 33 percent find him favorable, and 28 percent say he is unfavorable. Another 28 percent find him neither favorable nor unfavorable. 

The sample included 541 registered voters who are likely to vote in the general election. A margin of error was not specified. 

Vasquez is one of multiple vulnerable Democrats who have worked to distance themselves from President Joe Biden and the White House’s “Bidenomics” branding blitz. In August, Politico reported that Vasquez “is careful about pointing to economic progress — let alone crediting the president’s policies for it.” 

“I’m hyper-focused on the district. I think the most important job that a congressperson can do is first listen, and then react,” Vasquez told Politico. “And so I’m not going to go into my district pushing a Democratic agenda that people don’t feel is happening on the ground.”

When Biden touted “Bidenomics” during his visit to Vasquez’s district on August 9, a day after Politico published Vasquez’s comments, he was noticeably absent, and the president took notice. 

“Gabe is the one who couldn’t be here today,” Biden said, as the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) documented. 

Vasquez later tweeted, “I couldn’t be there because I needed to spend time with my father.” 

“To those who are blessed to have your parents, be sure to spend as much time with them as possible — you never know how much time you have left!” he added. 

Herrell contended that Vasquez was “dodging” Biden, as the Albuquerque Journal noted. 

“While Gabe Vasquez is dodging the President and we’re all trying to dodge Bidenomics, I’m in Lea County at the Parade & Fair with real hardworking Americans,” Herrell wrote in a social media post. “I’m not afraid to show up and do the work New Mexicans need in Congress!”

In a press release, NRCC spokeswoman Delanie Bomar contended that “Vasquez can skip events with Joe Biden all he wants, but he can’t run from the fact he has repeatedly voted for Biden’s extreme agenda.”

“The Biden-Vasquez agenda of voting against American energy, supporting higher spending and even voting to reduce penalties for violent criminals has been a disaster for New Mexico families,” she added.