President-elect Donald Trump could score major achievements in the Middle East almost as soon as he takes office.
The Biden-Harris administration left the region in chaos, thanks to its decisions to ease sanctions on Iran; to cut arms to Saudi Arabia; to delist the Houthis in Yemen as a terror group; and to restore funding to UNRWA, despite its links to Palestinian terror. The result was the October 7 attack. But Israel has fought back, and there is new hope for peace.
The main reason for hope is that Israel has succeeded in many of its war aims on the battlefield. It has destroyed most of Hamas in Gaza. It has decapitated the leadership structure of Hezbollah in Lebanon. It has demonstrated an ability to strike the Houthis in Yemen. And, crucially, it has stripped Iran of its air defenses, meaning that it cannot defend itself against a future Israeli (or U.S.) strike on its nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure, or even its government.
But Israel is growing weary of war. There are still 101 hostages captive in Gaza, who may not be released without an agreement with Hamas. The reservists who have done much of the fighting in Lebanon are starting to respond to call-ups at lower rates: at least 75% to 85% still show up, but many are worried about the economic and emotional toll at home. Israel’s credit rating has taken a hit, and some of its most highly skilled people are considering options abroad.
The situation is ripe for a diplomatic resolution.
There are several fronts that must be considered: One, the Iranian front, which includes Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraq; two, the Saudi front, which controls the prospects for normalization between Israel and the Arab states; three, the Palestinian front, including the question of what is to happen in Gaza after the war; four, the geopolitical front, including Russia and China’s future roles in the region.
1. Iranian front: Trump has talked about doing a deal with the regime, while Israel is still contemplating a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Trump has said he would support such a strike — but could offer the regime a way out, if it accepts a new, stringent nuclear deal.
A deal would have to include total destruction of existing nuclear capacities; complete transparency about past nuclear research; an end to Iran’s missile program; an end to support for terror; and human rights provisions. The latter are necessary to promote the prospect of peaceful, internal change over time.
This deal would be accompanied by companion agreements to end the war in Lebanon by removing Hezbollah from southern Lebanon and cutting off future arms and funding from both Russia and Iran; and a ceasefire agreement in Gaza under which all of the remaining hostages would be released in return for the safe departure of Hamas leaders.
2. Saudi front: Trump can revive the stalled Saudi-Israeli normalization process, which would have concluded had he been reelected in 2020, and would have succeeded in 2023 had the Biden-Harris administration not insisted on a Palestinian state as part of the agreement. Both sides could commit to progress for Palestinians, but not a state (yet).
3. Palestinian front: The Palestinians could be offered two alternatives: one, international rebuilding of Gaza in exchange for a system of municipal government in Gaza and the West Bank that never becomes a state; two, Israeli annexation of Gaza with the relocation of large portions of the local population to new cities in the West Bank, with the prospect of statehood in that territory to be revisited in 20 years. Israel will control Gaza’s borders in both cases.
The deal can be sweetened with offers to allow Palestinians to co-manage water quality across the entire area from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea; to allow the Palestinian Authority to open a cultural ministry in Jerusalem; and to give a set number of approved Palestinian tourists a “right to return” (but not to stay) on group visits to Israel.
4. Geopolitical front: The U.S. should agree with Russia on a plan to prevent escalation in the region, as part of negotiations with Russia on peace in Europe. In exchange for some concessions in Ukraine, Russia would agree to stop supporting Iran and to cut off Hezbollah’s supply routes in Syria. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia could agree to allow China an observer role in OPEC in return for agreeing not to intervene in the region’s military and political affairs.
These deals are complex, and overlapping. But they can be achieved, step by step, focusing on the agreements that are easiest to reach first, and expanding from there. There is already progress on a deal to end the Lebanon war, and the Saudis will likely be eager to pick up where talks with Israel left off, provided there are guarantees the Palestinians will not be forgotten. Other deals may be harder; some may not be possible. For those, there is still a military option.
The Trump administration, unlike the Biden-Harris administration, will not hesitate to use military force, or to allow Israel to do the same, against Iran or its proxies. That is precisely why peace deals are more likely: the alternative is clear, and costly, for America and Israel’s enemies. The benefits should also be clear: those countries, like the United Arab Emirates (UAE), who remained true to the Abraham Accords throughout the ongoing war should be rewarded. Countries like Qatar, which have played a both sides, need to be clear about whether they side with humanity, or Iran.
There are already encouraging signs. Trump has spoken three times already to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Many of President-elect Trump’s first picks for top positions are staunchly pro-Israel: Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) for UN Ambassador; former Gov. Mike Huckabee for Ambassador to Israel; former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe for CIA Director; Pete Hegseth for Secretary of Defense; and possibly Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) for Secretary of State. Former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY) will be EPA Administrator; it is not a foreign policy role, but confirmation of the administration’s pro-Israel credentials.
At the same time, President-elect Trump is making good on promises to Arab and Muslim voters to move toward peace. Massad Boulos, who is Tiffany Trump’s father-in-law, has already reached out to Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority.
The conflicts may be difficult to resolve; the so-called “Deal of the Century” may continue to be elusive. But the prospects have never been better — thanks to sacrifices Israel has made on the battlefield, and thanks to the American voters.
Joel B. Pollak is Senior Editor-at-Large at Breitbart News and the host of Breitbart News Sunday on Sirius XM Patriot on Sunday evenings from 7 p.m. to 10 p.m. ET (4 p.m. to 7 p.m. PT). He is the author of The Agenda: What Trump Should Do in His First 100 Days, available for pre-order on Amazon. He is also the author of The Trumpian Virtues: The Lessons and Legacy of Donald Trump’s Presidency, now available on Audible. He is a winner of the 2018 Robert Novak Journalism Alumni Fellowship. Follow him on Twitter at @joelpollak.
