National polls in Canada published on Wednesday and Thursday show the leftist Liberal Party holding on to a slimming lead against their Conservative challengers — one that a pollster referred to as a “marginal tie” compared to the larger lead even a week ago.
Canada is scheduled to hold a general election on April 28 intended to find a replacement for former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, a radical leftist who ruled for a decade. Canadian voters already cast their ballots last weekend during a brief period of early voting; according to the government agency running elections, a record 7.3 million Canadians voted virtually.
Trudeau resigned in January after an embarrassing visit to President Donald Trump’s estate at Mar-a-Lago in late 2024 after which Trump mocked him as the “governor” of the “state” of Canada and threatened to annex the country. The Liberals chose Mark Carney, a finance professional with no prior experience in politics, to succeed Trudeau. His closest rival is the leader of the Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre, who has run a campaign focused on making life for Canadians more affordable and limiting government spending.
A major campaign issue this year, given the context of Trudeau’s demise, is Trump’s threats to annex Canada and the imposition of tariffs on the country in response to its poor handling of border security, failure to contain fentanyl trafficking, and proximity to China. Carney has almost single-mindedly campaigned on claiming to be the toughest negotiator running and the only one who could contain the perceived Trump threat. Trump himself has said publicly, however, that he would “prefer” to work with a Liberal government and disparaged Poilievre personally as acting “stupidly.”
As of Thursday, the CBC average of national polls indicates that the Liberals are still likely to win the election. The average shows that 42.2 percent of voters support the Liberal Party, while 38.5 percent intend to vote for the Conservatives. The New Democratic Party (NDP), the Liberals’ closest competition to their left, is attracting 8.8 percent support — a dramatic low that has triggered calls for NDP leader Jagmeet Singh to resign.
“Liberals still hold a wider lead than they had going into the last two elections and are favored to win the most seats thanks to their enduring leads in Ontario, Quebec, B.C., and Atlantic Canada,” the CBC noted.
Some of the individual polls used to come up with the CBC average, however, documented slight drops in support for the Liberals, slight increases in support for the Conservatives, or both. Innovative Research Group, a polling firm, described the current status of the race as a “marginal tie” as of its latest surveys.
“What has emerged is that both major parties are clustered around 38/39%,” Innovative detailed. “Looking at the three [latest] polls in order of time, we found the Liberals at 39%, 36% and 38%, and the CPC at 38%, 41% and 38%.”
Liaison Strategies, which most recently published a poll on Wednesday, similarly documented a “tighter race,” 42 percent Liberal support to 39 percent for the conservatives. It warned, however, that last-minute developments could easily restore the Liberal lead — or destroy it.
Some observers of the race have looked toward other predictors outside of traditional polls in an attempt to understand the race. The National Post reported on Thursday that the betting website FanDuel, which can only operate legally in Canada in Ontario, has seem about 70 percent of gamblers place bets predicting a Poilievre victory over Carney.
“The company says that more than 80 per cent of the bets on the Conservatives were placed after March 25, when the election was underway and the Liberals were pulling away as favourites,” the Post observed.
The Conservatives were enjoying a formidable lead in January, when Trudeau was still prime minister and reeling over his meeting with Trump. A poll by the firm Ipsos taken in January found a 26-point lead for Poilievre over Trudeau.
In late February – before Carney became prime minister but after Trudeau resigned — Ipsos found that 38 percent of Canadians supported the Liberals, compared to 36 percent for the Conservatives. Both parties have seen increases in support at the expense of the NDP and other third parties, such as the Bloc Quebecois.
Speaking to Reuters on Thursday, University of Manitoba professor Paul Thomas attributed the narrowing Liberal lead in part to the diminished panic about Trump’s tariff policy in the country.
“The sense of crisis has probably diminished somewhat,” he suggested.
The Liberal and Conservative parties both published their policy platforms within the past two weeks. Carney published his on Saturday, as early voting was underway, and Poilievre published on Tuesday. The Liberal platform focuses heavily on spending on social programs, universal health care, and safety net policies to protect businesses from the tariffs Trump threatened but did not impose. The platform proposes an increase in government spending to $130 billion.
In contrast, Poilievre’s party is proposing significantly curtailing government programs, cutting taxes, and increasing revenue through the imposition of tariffs on the United States. The Conservatives claimed their plan would cut the Canadian deficit by 70 percent. The platform also contains provisions to increase legal punishments for violent criminals and increase border security measures.
