Populist Geert Wilders Polls First Place as Netherlands Goes to the Polls, But Forming Government Presents Challenge

Some of the last polling before the Netherlands votes on Wednesday, marking the end to over a decade of rule by top globalist Prime Minister Mark Rutte, shows Geert Wilders’ populist Party for Freedom nosing ahead among decided voters.

The Party for Freedom (PVV), founded and led by Geert Wilders (top, right), could be the single largest party in the Dutch Parliament once today’s results are counted, the last polls published before polling places opened suggest. If the results are borne out in the vote, it would be the best election result ever for the anti-mass migration populist, however, it would not guarantee he would lead the next government, given that he would still likely need to form a coalition with other like-minded parties to sercure a governing majority.

Polling by I&O shows the four largest parties, Wilders’ populist PVV, the currently governing centre-right globalist Forum for Democracy (VVC), the left-green Europhile GroenLinks-PvdA (GL/PvdA), and the newly founded New Social Contract (NSC) are within points of each other, with a selection of lesser parties trailing with a fraction of the support each.

(L-R) Dutch Labour Party (PvdA) member Frans Timmermans, D66 party’s member Rob Jetten, presenter Joris Marseille, presenter Evita Mac-nack, BoerBurgerBeweging (BBB) right wing party leader Caroline van der Plas, leader of the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) Dilan Yesilgoz, Dutch Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) new leader Henri Bontenbal and leader of the Party for Freedom (PVV) Geert Wilders pose during the NOS Youth News debate in Hilversum, on November 18, 2023. (Photo by Remko de Waal / ANP / AFP) / Netherlands OUT (Photo by REMKO DE WAAL/ANP/AFP via Getty Images)

PVV is polled to win 28 seats, with a margin of error putting the likely outcome between 25 and 31 seats for the party. VVD and GL/PvdA follow at 27 (margin of 24 to 30), while NSC was said to be expected to get 21 (margin of 18 to 24). In terms of percentages, Wilders’ PVV is expected to take over 17 per cent of votes, compared to just 10 per cent in the last election in 2021.

Wilders himself hailed the potentially historic results and implored his followers to “make it real” by getting out to vote on Wednesday. The party leader has spent years under constant police protection for his views as a fatwa has been issued against him, and he is assessed to be a top terrorist target.

Other last-minute polls published in the Netherlands appear — with the usual caveats over the longstanding accuracy issues with polling for right-wing causes — to confirm the I&O findings. Peil says they believe Wilders’ PVV will be the largest party with 29 seats, while IPSOS puts them in second place, behind the establishment-right VVD by two seats. In all polls, however, the major right-wing parties gain more seats than the left.

As a note issued with the I&O poll notes, the results come with that margin of error, and are further impacted by their reckoning that almost two third of voters haven’t yet completely made up their mind who they will vote for. While this may seem unusual to voters from two-party system states like the United States or, to a lesser extent the United Kingdom, in the Netherlands over two dozen parties are vying for seats, many of them with overlapping interests and competing for the same voters.

This fluid situation has been reflected in polling trends, which as the research company notes has shown the populist PVV steadily climbing in its projected share of seats since the summer, rising from 12 seats in June to as many as 28 now.

While the anti-Islamification PVV taking first place in the election would be a historic upset for the political system which has been ruled by one of the leading lights of soft-right centrist globalism for over a decade, it by no means guarantees a Geert Wilders-led government. In the Netherlands’ 150-seat parliament, 76 seats are needed for a stable government and winning 28 seats means bringing other parties onboard to build a governing coalition.

Unfortunately for Wilders, some of the most obvious partners, the VVC and NSC which are both described as varying shades of ‘centre-right’ have said they would refuse to cooperate with him in government. For their distaste for Wilders’ views on mass migration and faith the parties appear to prefer a left-wing coalition government to slip in instead of go into partnership with those to the right of them.

Pieter Omtzigt, leader of the newly founded NSC which campaigns against corrupt government and in favour of reform of institutions and the political system has been seen as a potential ‘kingmaker’ on the right and has already said he wouldn’t work with Wilders. The NSC is in favour of cutting migration but says Wilders’ anti-Islam proposals are unconstitutional. Omtzigt’s comments did come, however, before Wilders’ PVV surged into first place.

The new leader of Mark Rutte’s electoral powerhouse, the VVD, Dilan Yesilgöz (top, left), has also spoken out against the idea of working with Wilders. The Kurdish-Turkish-heritage politician said this week she didn’t foresee the polling being borne out in reality, and said she didn’t think Wilders would be able to form a government anyway. “This country needs a leader who can connect”, she said, saying there was no chance she’d serve under a Prime Minister Wilders.

The contemptuous dismissal of the idea of delivering a government tough on migration betrays, perhaps, that the VVD hasn’t learnt any lessons from the collapse of the last government which triggered this election, which was over disagreements on immigration policy. The remarks also don’t appear to give much credit to Wilders, who as reported has been tempering his anti-Islamification rhetoric to concentrate on policies seen as important to the Dutch people including cutting immigration and fixing the housing crisis.

If a right-wing coalition fails, the Netherlands would be looking at a left-wing government, likely led by the GL/PvdA‘s Frans Timmermans, a long-time top figure at the European Union and opponent of Brexit Britain. Timmermans has been seen as the candidate for the ‘Great Reset’ in the Netherlands, as his Green party strongly support the EU’s climate goals which were the subject of a popular result in the country earlier this year. The insurgent Farmers’ Party won local elections, taking seats in the Dutch Senate for the first time.

Projected results are expected around midnight in the Netherlands with government formation due to begin Thursday, although this process can take weeks if not months.