Post Debate National Poll: Trump Still Leads with Support from Half of Republicans

Former President Donald Trump is leading the Republican primary field with support from half of Republican primary voters, the latest Emerson College survey found.

The survey, taken August 25-26, 2023, following the first GOP primary debate, found Trump still leading the crowded field with 50 percent support — 38 points ahead of his closest rival.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis comes in a distant second in the lower teens with 12 percent support, and anti-woke businessman Vivek Ramaswamy comes in just three points behind DeSantis with nine percent support.

Former Vice President Mike Pence and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley tie with seven percent support each, followed by five percent who support former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and two percent who choose South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

However, Trump’s lead, while significant, reflects a six-point drop over the last week, and DeSantis’s 12 percent support reflects a two-point increase. Pence also experienced a bump, moving up four points since last week, as Haley jumped five points.

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“While Trump saw a slight dip in support, the question from this poll is whether this is a blip for Trump or if the other Republican candidates will be able to rally enough support to be competitive for the caucus and primary season,” Executive Director of Emerson College Polling Spencer Kimball said.

The survey also found DeSantis and Ramaswamy essentially splitting voters when respondents were asked to choose a candidate based solely those who participated in the Milwaukee debate.

Per Emerson College Polling:

When presented with a Republican Primary ballot test with only the debate stage candidates, 30% of voters would support DeSantis, followed by Ramaswamy at 25%, Pence at 16%, and Haley at 12%. Christie (8%), Scott (5%), Hutchinson (3%) and Burgum (3%) round out the field.
Kimball notes, “When Trump is removed from the GOP ballot test, his voters split between DeSantis at 32% and Ramaswamy at 29%, with Pence at 16% — which suggests if Trump was to not run, a race between DeSantis and Ramaswamy could take shape.”

Further, the survey found most, 57 percent, revealing that they would “definitely” vote for the candidate they chose, but that reflects a five-point drop from the week prior.

The poll also asked Republican primary voters who they believe won the debate, which Trump did not participate in. Over one-quarter, 27 percent, said Ramaswamy followed by 21 percent who said DeSantis, 12 percent who chose Pence and 11 percent who believe Haley was the victor. However, two in ten Republicans view no one as the winner. Additionally, a plurality of voters said Trump’s refusal to participate in the debate made no difference in their decision to support the former president.

The full survey was taken August 25-26, 2023, among 1,000 registered voters and has a +/- 3 percent margin of error.

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