A survey published by the Chilean market research company Cadem on Sunday found that 56 percent of Chileans plan to vote against replacing their nation’s constitution in a December referendum.
If Chileans reject the new constitution proposal, it will mark the second back-to-back failed attempt at replacing Chile’s constitution in a lengthy multi-year process that began as a response to the demands of leftist rioters nearly burning down the capital in 2019.
Cadem’s latest Plaza Pública (“Public Square”) survey shows that only 24 percent of Chileans are willing to vote for a new constitution, versus 56 percent who expressed their intention to vote against it. The remaining 20 percent either chose not to respond or described themselves as unsure. The survey was held between August 23-25.
Chile’s current constitution was implemented in 1980 during the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet. Over the past 43 years, the Chilean core legal structure has been amended 31 times and is thus significantly different from its original iteration.
Replacing “Pinochet’s constitution” was among the top demands of a movement of violent leftist rioters that originally took the streets to protest against a proposed public transit fare hike in 2019 during the administration of “center-right” former President Sebastián Piñera.
Piñera gave into the leftist demands and initiated a lengthy two-year constitutional process in 2020 that first asked Chileans to vote on whether or not they wanted to start the proceedings to discard their constitution, followed by the election of predominantly leftist members of a constitutional convention in 2021, tasked with drafting the new legal document. The process continued under the current administration of far-left President Gabriel Boric, who took office in March 2022.
The Constitutional Convention produced a radical leftist constitution deemed the world’s “most progressive” constitution if enacted. Over 61 percent of Chileans voted to reject it.
Chileans expressed in September continuing support for replacing the current constitution with something, resetting the entire process with votes for new members of the Constitutional Convention. The Second Constitutional Council is made up of a majority conservative members as a result of the vote, meaning their draft constitution will likely look significantly different from the one voters rejected last year.
This second attempt differs from the first in that a group of experts and lawmakers were tasked with preparing an initial draft via consensus that served as a legal basis for the new council – instead of having the elected council work on a new constitution from scratch.
The council, presently working on its constitutional proposal, is expected to present its results to the group of experts in October, who will review its text and may present suggestions to improve it. The finalized proposal will be presented in November and put up for vote in December.
Cadem’s latest survey showed that 61 percent of respondents do not believe that the Constitutional Council will succeed in presenting a constitutional proposal that will be approved by vote, versus 37 percent that believe otherwise.
The Chilean market research company asked respondents to further elaborate their reasoning, showing significant differences between right-wing and left-wing Chileans on why they plan on rejecting the new proposal.
The 34 percent of respondents who identified as right-wing in the survey, among the total who said they planned to vote against the new constitution, said they prefer Chile’s current constitution. Another 18 percent answered that they would oppose the new constitution because the oppose the current government; 14 percent answered to not be informed enough and 13 percent answered that they do not want a new constitutional process.
Among left-wing respondents who said they would vote against the new constitution, 46 percent said they distrust the lawmakers working on the proposal. Another 26 percent answered that the proposal has no “topics of interest,” 18 percent answered that they distrust the conservative Republican Party’s councilors specifically, and 11 percent said they prefer the current constitution.
In the case of those who answered they would vote for the new document, 39 percent of right-wing respondents said the country does need a new constitution. Another 16 percent answered that this second attempt will be led by more qualified constituents than the previous council. About 12 percent said they simply like the new constitutional proposals.
A little over half, 53 percent, of left-wing respondents in favor of replacing the constitution said the country needs a new one, 16 percent answered they support changes in social rights, and 14 percent said the country needs the new document to improve security and fight rampant delinquency.
Christian K. Caruzo is a Venezuelan writer and documents life under socialism. You can follow him on Twitter here.
