Progressives Issue Warning to Harris: Break With Biden On Gaza... Now

With the high-stakes U.S. presidential election less than a month away, warnings about the possible political consequences of Democratic nominee Kamala Harris' refusal to break with President Joe Biden on supporting Israel's assault on Gaza and beyond are taking on fresh urgency amid new survey data showing the vice president narrowly trailing GOP nominee Donald Trump in Michigan—a critical battleground state.

A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday found that Harris is trailing Trump by three percentage points in Michigan—a reversal of the university's survey last month, which showed the vice president with a slight lead over her Republican opponent. The new survey showed Harris leading in Pennsylvania and Trump leading in Wisconsin.

While Trump's polling lead in Michigan was within the margin of error, the results amplified preexisting concerns about Harris' chances in the state, which has a large Arab and Muslim population—many of whom have lost family members in Israel's yearlong assault on the Gaza Strip, a relentless military campaign that has intensified in recent days as the prospects of a cease-fire agreement appear nonexistent.

The Quinnipiac poll found that by a margin of 53% to 43%, Michigan respondents said they think Trump—who has expressed support for Israel's devastating bombardment of Gaza—would do a better job "handling the conflict in the Middle East" than Harris.

James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute, told Rolling Stone earlier this week that he has expressed to the Harris team that "if you want people to vote for you, you gotta give them a reason."

"They don't seem to care enough about the Arab American vote to do something to get it," said Zogby.

Last month, Zogby's organization released a poll of its own showing that support for Harris would climb nationally if she endorsed an arms embargo against Israel—something she has openly opposed despite pressure from advocacy groups who say it's essential to end Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's obstruction of cease-fire talks.

Zogby noted in his interview with Rolling Stone that Michigan's Lebanese American population is the largest in the United States—potentially compounding Harris' political vulnerability in the state as Israel ramps up its assault on Lebanon with the support of the Biden administration.

"Many of the constituents are Lebanese who have deep attachments to Palestinians," said Zogby, arguing that Israel's escalation in Lebanon "will either put an exclamation point on the outrage or depression—causing them either not to vote or to flip and vote elsewhere."

"The reaction I'm getting, when I go around the country and talk to people, is they want to punish Democrats," Zogby added. "That's not a smart political move, but that's what people are feeling. And I don't have an argument to make because [members of the Harris campaign] haven't given us arguments to make."

Harris has repeatedly acknowledged, including during her speech at the Democratic National Convention in August, the "immense suffering of innocent Palestinians in Gaza who have experienced so much pain and loss over the year."

But Harris has rebuffed calls to create distance between herself and the Biden administration's unwavering support for Israel's assault on Gaza and Lebanon. "No," the vice president responded when asked during a recent televised interview whether she would support withholding U.S. arms shipments to Israel, whose forces have used American weaponry to commit war crimes in Gaza and Lebanon.

Harris has also declined to meet with Americans with family members in Lebanon and Gaza, according to the co-founder of the Uncommitted National Movement.

Speaking to Mother Jones earlier this week, Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud—who is Lebanese American—said Trump "is a threat" to Arab Americans and hardly an advocate of peaceful resolution in the Middle East. But Hammoud said the Harris campaign is not helping its case with voters when it fails to support an arms embargo against Israel, a position that—according to one recent poll—is backed by a majority of the American electorate.

"What I keep pushing back on is it's not this community that has to move in its values and principles and any issues that it's taken a stance on. It's the candidates who have to move," said Hammoud. "And don't move because of Dearborn, by all means. I'm not telling you to move because this small city in the Midwest is telling you to move on these issues. Move because the general American populace has said these issues matter to them."

"And this idea that people will forget?" he continued. "Remember we heard this nine months ago: 'People will forget come November.' People are not forgetting... Genocide is not something you can cast aside."

On Thursday, Emerson College released survey data it collected with The Hill showing that Trump and Harris are in a dead heat in Michigan—further indicating that a small swing in favor of either candidate could tip the scales and potentially decide who takes the White House.

Moira Donegan, a columnist for The Guardian, argued Wednesday that "Harris should give a speech in Michigan where she breaks with the Biden administration on Israel."

"This is very obviously in her self-interest to do," Donegan wrote on social media, adding that she doubts the vice president will take her advice. If she did, wrote IfNotNow co-founder Yonah Lieberman, it "would be a seminal political moment that would win Michigan, stop a second Trump administration, and help end a genocide."