JERUSALEM, Israel — The Biden-Harris administration is said to be threatening Israel into accepting a 60-day ceasefire in Lebanon, lest it allow the United Nations Security Council to impose a ceasefire instead, with sanctions if Israel refuses to comply.
The claim has emerged as the Israeli government is reportedly preparing to accept a deal brokered by the U.S. that is not guaranteed to restore security to the northern communities of Israel — the fundamental reason Israel is fighting.
Reports indicate that a ceasefire could be accepted as early as Tuesday evening. One Israeli government source told Breitbart News on Monday that it is very likely Israel will accept the current deal, which Lebanon has also accepted.
Under the terms of the deal, Hezbollah would withdraw from the border, north of the Litani River — as it is already required to do by United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 of 2006, which ended the Second Lebanon War.
The Lebanese Armed Forces would have 60 days to redeploy throughout that territory, as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) withdraws. Israel would retain the right to respond to any attempt by Hezbollah to return to the area again.
Compliance would be monitored by a new committee of nations, headed by the United States. This, presumably, is stronger than the current, failed monitoring system, run by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).
Initial reactions by Israelis suggest that they are uncomfortable with the deal.
One resident of the northern community of Kfar Blum told Israel’s Army Radio on Monday that she wanted more than paper guarantees of peace, and did not want her children to have to fight another war in Lebanon in 15 years.
Hezbollah clearly retains the ability to fire dozens of rockets a day at Israel, and there are large areas of southern Lebanon the IDF has not yet cleared out.
With Hezbollah in retreat across southern Lebanon, some Israelis wonder if the White House is simply taking an opportunity to damage Israel in the lame-duck weeks of the administration, as President Barack Obama did in 2016.
However, the proposed deal is much better than the one Hezbollah demanded earlier this year, under which Israel would leave Gaza without the hostages, and the IDF would withdraw forces from Israel’s own border near Lebanon.
Moreover, the Biden-Harris administration may have left Israel no choice, given the threat of action in the United Nations — and given the fact that the U.S. is withholding key weapons and equipment.
The Times of Israel reported:
Israel decided it had no choice but to accept a ceasefire, in part out of a fear that the US administration could punish Israel with a United Nations Security Council resolution in its final weeks, the official asserted.
Israel is also missing capabilities it needs from the US, including 134 D9 bulldozers, said the official.
Though the United Nations has little credibility, the Security Council is still formidable. Any sanctions it imposed on Israel as a result of noncompliance with a binding ceasefire resolution would be extremely costly, and hard to undo.
Israel would certainly prefer to face U.S. pressure to comply with a ceasefire, rather than pressure from the Security Council. And the U.S. would also be likelier than the United Nations to pressure Lebanon and Hezbollah to comply.
Breitbart News has also learned that the D9 shortage is particularly problematic. The IDF uses the bulldozers to clear areas around buildings where there are suspected terrorists. Without them, its troops are more exposed to enemy fire.
Some Israelis are wondering whether they should simply wait until President Donald Trump takes office in January. But there are two problems with that. One is the huge economic cost of the war, as reservists must leave their jobs for months at a time, and international travel has come to a standstill, effectively imposing an embargo on the country.
The other problem is that if the second Trump administration were to impose a weak ceasefire, Israel would have no recourse: it could not wait four years for a better deal in a subsequent administration. Trump is arguably the most pro-Israel president in U.S. history, but he has pledged to stop the war in Lebanon, and has a new Arab and Muslim constituency to whom he is accountable.
Israel’s best strategy may be to accept a 60-day ceasefire now, and renegotiate a better deal afterwards, knowing that Trump will be keen to improve on Biden’s perceived failures.
Moreover, experts tell Breitbart News that no deal will guarantee Israel’s security until there is a major political change on the other side — the end of Iran’s support for Hezbollah, for example, or political change in Lebanon.
Israel’s best hope may be to pause the fighting now, and allow Lebanon to recover, while planning more aggressive pressure on Iran, under a new U.S. administration that is likely to give Israel a free hand in fighting its main enemy.
Joel B. Pollak is Senior Editor-at-Large at Breitbart News and the host of Breitbart News Sunday on Sirius XM Patriot on Sunday evenings from 7 p.m. to 10 p.m. ET (4 p.m. to 7 p.m. PT). He is the author of The Agenda: What Trump Should Do in His First 100 Days, available for pre-order on Amazon. He is also the author of The Trumpian Virtues: The Lessons and Legacy of Donald Trump’s Presidency, now available on Audible. He is a winner of the 2018 Robert Novak Journalism Alumni Fellowship. Follow him on Twitter at @joelpollak.
