Former President Donald Trump and the Republican Party are favored to win the White House, the House, and the Senate, according to a forecast model published by Decision Desk HQ and the Hill on Wednesday.
According to the model, Trump has a 58 percent chance of winning back the presidency, with slight leads in most of the key swing states.
The model shows even a greater chance of Republicans winning back the House, at 64 percent, and the Senate at a whopping 80 percent.
The model, which is based on the framework Decision Desk HQ used for the 2020 and 2022 elections with some changes, uses about 200 different data points, including voter registration numbers, demographics, past election results, fundraising, and polling averages.
Trump leads Biden in each of the six battleground states that will likely decide the election — Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, the model showed, though the margins were “razor-tight” and within two points.
Scott Tranter, the director of data science for Decision Desk HQ, told the Hill that the projections are just a snapshot in time, such as a test grade.
“This is like taking a test that doesn’t count, like getting a grade in school that doesn’t count,” he told the Hill. “No one’s voting today, no one’s picking a president or picking a senator. If they did pick them today, this is probably how I’d hand it out.”
Tranter said Republicans should feel good about where they are, but not take anything for granted since a shift of two or three percentage points in a few states could dramatically affect the forecast.
“This is a good reference point,” he told the outlet. “This is a good thing, if you’re a Democrat or Republican candidate, to say, ‘Hey, this is where I’m at today, but I still got six months to go.’”
Read the Hill’s report here.
