Schumer Shutdown: Two Ways This Can Go

With tomorrow's shutdown deadline looming (and the House gone on recess until March 24), Senate Democrats are scrambling to both kill the GOP bill that passed the house, and avoid the optics of a shutdown falling squarely on their shoulders after minority leader Chuck Schumer categorically rejected the bill on Wednesday, and instead floated a 30-day continuing resolution which would allow Democrats to stuff it full of their own pork to include in a revised package (that he doesn't have the votes for)...

In short:

As the Senate opened Thursday, Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) - who filed cloture on the House-passed CR on Wednesday - said, "It’s time to fish or cut bait."

And as the Associated Press notes, debates over funding the federal government routinely erupt in deadline moments but this year it’s showing the political leverage of Republicans, newly in majority control of the White House and Congress, and the shortcomings of Democrats who are finding themselves unable to stop the Trump administration’s march across federal operations.

Given that the Senate has 53 Republicans, one of whom is a definite 'no' (Rand Paul of Kentucky), at least eight Democrats need to cross party lines to avert a shutdown at midnight on Friday.

Two Ways This Can Go

According to the chaps at Punchbowl News, there's really two ways this can play out at this point:

Option one: Democrats can fold and take the deal on the table - providing the votes needed to advance the House GOP’s stopgap spending bill in exchange for a symbolic amendment vote on their own 28-day funding extension. This would be pure theater, giving Democrats the chance to go on record opposing a shutdown while letting Republicans push through their own bill anyway. The government stays open, Schumer saves face with progressives, and Republicans get what they wanted all along.

But make no mistake - this wouldn’t be a win for Schumer (a "fake BBQ'ing Palestinian"), who floated a 28-day CR that doesn't have the votes to pass, even with a simple majority. Meanwhile, Republicans can sit back and let the clock force the issue. Time isn’t on the Democrats’ side, and at some point, they’ll have to face reality.

Option two: Schumer and Senate Democrats hold the line, block the House CR, and force a government shutdown.

That means federal workers furloughed, services delayed, and chaos come Monday morning when the full effects hit. And here’s the kicker - Trump’s people at the Office of Management and Budget get to decide exactly how painful this shutdown will be. White House sources are already warning that the former president will make sure Democrats feel every bit of the pressure.

But here’s where it gets ugly for Schumer: what’s the exit strategy? There isn’t one. The House is gone, meaning there’s no magic fix coming. And at some point, Democrats will have to explain why shutting down the government over a short-term CR that never had a shot at passing was somehow worth it.

So those are the choices: take the loss now and move on, or hold out, take the blame for the shutdown, and likely still take the loss later. Either way, Trump and Musk are watching from the sidelines, ready to make their next move while Washington does what it does best—trip over itself in broad daylight.

According to the White House, "They're totally screwed."

Stay tuned for updates...

*  *  *

Going, Going, Gone... we've only got three black hats left...

That was fast - black hats are gone, but we still have ~50 green waxed canvas hats until sometime in April. 

Combine with awesome multitool for free shipping.