Sea-Change: Most Hispanics Now Prefer Trump - Biden's Black Support Plummets From 2020

Confounding leftists in and outside of major media who've spent years portraying Donald Trump as a racist, Hispanic support for the former president continues to surge -- to the point that Trump is now the first choice among the increasingly significant US demographic. 

Meanwhile, black enthusiasm for Biden has plummeted since 2020, leaving many in the Democrat electoral cornerstone eager to vote for a third-party candidate. These are among several findings of a new USA Today/Suffolk University poll that are sure to compound Democrats worries about the 2024 election. 

Trump boasts a five-point lead among Hispanics, with Biden trailing 39% to 34%. That is an absolute sea change from 2020, when Biden's Hispanic share blew Trump out of the water, 65% to 32%.   

While Biden received 87% of the black vote in 2020, only 63% intend to vote for him in November. It's not that they're surging toward Trump. Indeed, USA Today reports his black support is holding steady at the same 12% he received in 2020. Rather, fed up with Biden, 20% of blacks plan to vote for someone other than Biden or Trump. 

There's even more for the Democratic National Committee to wring their hands over. Like other recent surveys, the USA Today/Suffolk poll found Trump winning among voters under age 35, by a 37% to 33% spread. Similar to blacks, 21% of young voters plan to vote for someone outside the two major parties -- at least, if Biden and Trump are the nominees. While it wasn't reported as part of this poll, it appears already-weak youth support for Biden has been further sapped by his overwhelming support for Israel's destruction of Gaza in response to the Oct. 7 Hamas military and terrorist attack on southern Israel. 

The 2024 field features multiple independent and third-party candidates that varyingly appeal to blacks, progressive leftists and independent voters, including Cornel West, Jill Stein and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. In the USA Today/Suffolk poll, the inclusion of seven independent and third-party yielded a small net advantage for Trump, nudging his overall lead over Biden from 2 points in a head-to-head to 3 points in a multi-candidate race. Kennedy came in third, grabbing a 10% share.  

"Although Trump hasn't grown support among Black voters, he has closed the deficit because third-party voters come off of Biden's support among Blacks," David Paleologos, director of Suffolk's Political Research Center, told USA Today. "A young voter or a person of color voting 'third party' is a vote away from President Biden, and a vote away from President Biden is a vote for Donald Trump."