A poll suggests that if Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) were to enter the race to be the next governor of New York, she would not only have a commanding lead in the Republican primary, but she would also close in on defeating Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY).
The GrayHouse poll conducted between April 22-24, 2025, which surveyed 826 registered voters in New York, found that if the next Republican primary for governor of New York were held today, 44 percent of voters would support Stefanik, while seven percent would support Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY).
Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman received five percent of support, while another 44 percent expressed that they “don’t know” whom they would vote for.
The poll noted that “Stefanik has a clear advantage in image among Republican voters, with a net favorability of +47 (56% favorable, 9% unfavorable”:
Stefanik has a clear advantage in image among Republican voters, with a net favorability of +47 (56% favorable, 9% unfavorable)—putting her in a more positively defined position than Lawler (+28) and Blakeman (+18). She also maintains a positive net favorability of +10 with Independents, compared to +2 for Lawler and -1 for Blakeman.
During an interview on FOX Business’s Mornings with Maria, Lawler told host Cheryl Casone that he would make his decision regarding running for New York governor “by June.”
“I’ll make my decision solely based on whether or not I believe there’s a pathway to win,” Lawler explained. “It won’t be determined by anybody else. Ultimately, we will make a decision on who can make the best case to New Yorkers and defeat Kathy Hochul. Because at the end of the day, that’s what it’s about.”
Elise Stefanik considering NY governor bid — as Trump hails ‘GREAT!!!’ congresswoman https://t.co/m7iUW8B0rh pic.twitter.com/iT1khuXf6e
— New York Post (@nypost) April 16, 2025
The poll also found that 61 percent of voters expressed that it is “time for someone new,” while 18 percent of registered voters said they would “probably re-elect” Hochul. Nine percent of voters said they would “definitely re-elect” Hochul, while 12 percent said they did not know.
When asked who they would vote for if the 2026 New York gubernatorial election were held today against Hochul and Stefanik, 40 percent of voters said they would support the Republican candidate, while 46 percent said they would support Hochul. Fourteen percent said they did not know whom they would vote for.
In a match-up between Hochul and Lawler, 38 percent of voters said they would vote for the Republican candidate, while 45 percent said they would vote for Hochul. Eighteen percent said they did not know.
In a match-up against Blakeman and Hochul, 36 percent of voters said they would vote for the Republican candidate, while 44 percent said they would vote for Hochul. Twenty percent of voters said they had not made a decison.
Hochul’s “net job approval rating” was described as “deeply underwater at -18 overall,” with 36 percent of voters approving and 55 percent disapproving.
The results of the poll come as a Siena College poll conducted between April 14-16, 2025, which surveyed 802 registered voters in New York, found that Hochul had a favorability rating of 44-43 percent, an increase from “40-50” percent in March, according to Spectrum News.
NBC News previously reported that “two sources” told the outlet that Stefanik, whom Trump had initially nominated to serve as the United Nations Ambassador, was considering a run for New York governor.
“One of the sources said Stefanik is seriously considering a run after she received encouragement from Republicans in New York, members of the Trump world and GOP donors,” NBC News reported.
