Shock Poll: Le Pen Party Could Gain Outright Majority in National Assembly if Snap Election Called in France

A previously private poll found that in the event of a dissolution of the French parliament and snap elections were called, Marine Le Pen’s populist National Rally party could win an outright majority in the National Assembly.

In yet another demonstration of the growing popularity of the populist right in France, a survey commissioned by the centrist Les Républicains (LR) in December found that the National Rally (RN) of former presidential candidate Marine Le Pen could win between 243 and 305 seats in the National Assembly in the event snap elections were called.

The poll of 4,000 French voters, conducted by the Ipsos Institute on a private basis, suggested that the RN would likely secure either a relative or outright majority (currently 289 seats) and therefore control the parliament, the L’Obs magazine reports. This would also represent a major jump in support compared to the 2022 legislative elections, potentially seeing the party more than triple the 89 votes it received two years ago.

In comparison, the poll found that President Macron’s En Marche and his minority government coalition partners the Democratic Movement (MoDem) and the Horizon group, would only secure between 117 and 165, down from 245 in the 2022 elections and far behind the National Rally.

Meanwhile, the NUPES group of leftist parties would only manage to win between 55 and 79 seats, a significant collapse from the 131 seats won in 2022. Finally, support for the Les Républicains would remain largely unchanged according to the survey, which projected the centre-right party to claim between 55 and 79 members of the National Assembly, compared to 62 in 2022.

Responding to the survey an RN spokesman said: “​If the people vote, the people win!”

The survey was conducted amid suggestions that parliament could be dissolved in December as President Macron’s attempts — from a minority position — to push through an immigration bill were blocked by the opposition National Rally, the LR and the leftist La France Insoumise parties, throwing into question whether the president could effectively govern the country. Ultimately, the move forced Macron to push forward a stricter immigration law, which was passed with the help of the RN.

While the poll should be taken with a grain of salt, given the difficulty of projecting national sentiment onto 577 individual local races, it is another significant indicator in the shifting political landscape within France.

Previously cast off and dismissed as a “far-right” fringe party, the National Rally has now become a political heavyweight and potentially the strongest party in the country.

Despite falling short in her previous three attempts at ascending to the Élysee Palace, Marine Le Pen now stands as the clear frontrunner in the race to replace President Emmanuel Macron when his second — and final — term in office comes to a close in 2028.

In the more immediate future, the survey serves as further confirmation of the National Rally’s strong position heading into the European Parliament elections in June. A separate poll from Ipsos conducted this month found that the populist right-wing party holds a 13-point advantage over Macron’s group three months before voters head to the polls.

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