Monday brought a new twist in South Korea's ongoing political discord, as the country's Constitutional Court negated the impeachment of Prime Minister Han Duck-soo and immediately reinstated him as acting president. The country now awaits an even more consequential ruling about the propriety of the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol.
"I thank the Constitutional Court for its wise decision," said Han. "I will work to bring the government to order." Han became acting president in December, following Yoon's impeachment after he stunned South Korea and the world by attempting to declare martial law.
Han's hold on the presidency proved short-lived, however, as he too was impeached by the National Assembly less than two weeks after taking command. His ouster came after he blocked the appointment of three more justices to the Constitutional Court -- a move intended to increase the chances of Yoon's impeachment. (Justices serve renewable six-year terms, but must retire upon reaching age 70.) He was also accused of aiding and abetting Yoon's martial law declaration.
Since then, the South Korean government has been led by Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok. In a sign that the National Assembly's impeachment fever is still in full force, opposition parties last week put forward a motion to impeach Choi too, as they have been angered by his frequent vetoes of legislation and his procrastination in appointing a new, left-leaning Constitutional Court justice who's already been approved by the assembly.
That brings us to Monday, when the Constitutional Court decisively struck down Han's impeachment in a 7-1 ruling. The reasoning differed among the justices, with some saying Hans actions cited by the assembly weren't illegal, others saying they were insufficiently serious to warrant impeachment, and some saying the impeachment motion itself didn't reach requisite two-thirds majority.
While Han's case has been resolved, tension is soaring as the country awaits the court's ruling on Yoon's impeachment. The court, which gets the final word on the National Assembly's impeachments, hasn't said when it will announce a decision. If Yoon's impeachment is upheld, South Korea must elect a new president within 60 days. Otherwise, he will retake the presidency, which would surely cause even more national friction.
As anxiety over the pending Yoon decision increases, huge demonstrations have been organized in recent days by both supporters and opponents of Yoon. Saturday saw dueling protests in Seoul comprising tens of thousands split into two dueling, chanting masses separated by a makeshift barrier composed of police buses.
Polls in recent weeks showed that South Koreans preferred Mr. Yoon’s ouster to his reinstatement roughly three to two. But in a deeply divided nation, Parliament’s decision to impeach him has also galvanized the political right. -- New York Times
In another visible sign of the perceived volatility of the situation, the Constitutional Court's physical security has been enhanced, with razor wire now seen atop its walls. Rhetoric is running hot. “If President Yoon is not reinstated, there will be a civil war,” Pastor Jun Kwang-hoon, who has organized pro-Yoon demonstrations, told a crowd on Saturday. He says the drive to restore Yoon to office is a battle against "Communist reds."
Despite Jun's prediction, as is the case in the West, the likelihood of political violence might be higher if the left comes out on the losing end. As Sogang University political science professor Shang E. Ha told the Times:
“If [the Constitutional Court] endorses Yoon’s impeachment, there will be some commotion, but the political landscape will quickly shift toward a presidential election. But if he returns to office, even those who have been waiting patiently for a ruling will take to the streets. We will see riots.”
That's not to say the South Korean right is thoroughly nonviolent. When a judge issued a warrant to arrest Yoon for insurrection in January, Yoon backers vandalized a courthouse. On another occasion, two Yoon partisans self-immolated to protest his impeachment.
Bracing for the Yoon ruling, South Korea is set to impose a range of extraordinary measures for the day of the announcement: Some 14,000 police will be on standby, schools will close, and authorities have called for trash bins, rocks, empty bottles and other potential makeshift weapons to be removed from the streets.
Buckle up...
