Survey: New York May Be Reddening, as Donald Trump Leads in Traditionally Blue District

Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in a New York district that Biden carried in 2020, an internal survey from McLaughlin & Associates found.

The survey examined the race in New York’s Fourth Congressional District, which is a traditionally blue area. It found Long Island Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito leading Democrat challenger Laura Gillen 45 percent to 38 percent, and, nationally, it found Trump edging out Biden by seven percentage points — 51 percent to 44 percent — in that district.

This could indicate that New York is reddening, as Biden firmly took this district in the 2020 presidential election:

Notably, this survey was taken May 21 to 23, 2024 — before a Manhattan jury found Trump guilty on all 34 counts in his business records trial. That is significant, as post-conviction surveys across the board — both nationwide and statewide — show the conviction not only failing to hurt Trump but actually helping him lead Biden.

As Breitbart News reported:

A survey from the Economist/YouGov — taken well after the Manhattan jury’s guilty verdict — asked registered voters, “In November 2024, who do you plan to vote for in the presidential election?”

Overall, 42 percent said they would vote for Trump, and 40 percent said they would vote for Biden — a two-point difference. Notably, both Trump and Biden tied earlier in June with 42 percent support each. In other words, the Manhattan jury’s guilty verdict in the former president’s controversial business records trial has not negatively affected his support. In fact, Trump’s support has remained steady, and Biden’s has taken a slight dip.

…

Cygnal also released a national poll that told a similar story, showing Trump leading Biden by two points nationally — 47 percent to Biden’s 45 percent head-to-head. When third-party candidates are included, Trump still leads Biden, this time by three points — 41 percent to Biden’s 38 percent support.

The trend is consistent in individual states, as well. A June Minnesota survey, for example, showed Trump edging out Biden in the blue state. In May, Trump drew a crowd of more than 100,000 in blue New Jersey.

The McLaughlin & Associates survey was taken among 400 likely general election voters in New York’s Fourth District. Republican National Committee (RNC) Co-Chair Lara Trump is among those who said the establishment media’s angle — calling Trump a “convicted felon” — is absolutely not working.

“And we know that folks in the mainstream media are going to love to call Donald Trump a convicted felon. It’s literally been the only thing they’ve been banking on. Obviously, it’s not working because his poll numbers just after the verdict have actually gone up,” she said, adding, “You saw a five- or six-point increase in his polling after that.”

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“And so, whether it’s suburban women, whether it’s black voters, Hispanic voters, everyone’s life is suffering right now, and people want to get back to normalcy. They want their country back. They want their life back. They want peace agreements in the Middle East instead of wars in the Middle East. And they know who brought it to them, and I believe that’s why they’re going to go out and vote for Donald Trump,” she predicted.

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