Texas Poll: Joe Biden Trails Donald Trump But Leads Nikki Haley in Hypothetical Matchups

Former President Donald Trump holds a nearly double-digit lead over President Joe Biden in a potential general election race in Texas as former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) trails Biden in a separate hypothetical match-up, per a poll.

The Redfield Wilton Strategies poll, conducted for Newsweek and published on Wednesday, found that 44 percent of Texas voters would back Trump in a five-way race for the White House, placing him nine points above Biden, who sits at 35 percent.

Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. comes in third place with six percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent candidate Cornel West tie at one percent. Twelve percent are undecided.

The poll finds that when Haley is the Republican nominee instead of Trump, Biden leads the pack with 32 percent support in a state Democrats have not won in a general election since 1976. Haley takes 30 percent of support, and Kennedy surges to 14 points without Trump in the field.

Neither West nor Stein garner a percentage point in this scenario, while 18 percent of Texans remain undecided.

Additionally, the poll asked voters who they believe has the better chance of beating Biden: Trump or Haley. Of all respondents, 47 percent say Trump, while 19 percent select Haley. Another 12 percent think they are equally likely to beat Biden, and 22 percent are unsure.

A plurality of Democrats, 36 percent, think Haley has the better chance to beat Biden, and 22 percent of the demographic think Trump does. Three in four Republicans believe Trump is better positioned to best Biden, while just over one in ten say Haley is the GOP’s top bet at reclaiming the White House.

Respondents were also asked to select as many as three issues they see as the “most likely to determine how [they] vote.” The economy received the highest response rate at 60 percent, followed by immigration and healthcare at 37 percent and 35 percent, respectively.

The poll sampled 814 Texas voters from February 1-3, 2024, with a margin or error of ± 3.43 percentage points.