"Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to fuck things up." -Barack Obama
With less than eight months before the 2024 election, the Biden re-election campaign is in big trouble. Not only is Biden lagging in the polls vs. Donald Trump, the border crisis he created by shredding all of Trump's Executive Orders on immigration has resulted in 10 million illegals flooding into the United States - which has left even Democrats livid.
What's more, Biden is quickly losing the support of young Americans, and the latino vote.
Things are so bad that TIME magazine has just devoted 3,700 words to let us know that Barack Obama 'warned' the Biden campaign last June that defeating Trump would be harder in 2024 (because no pandemic or hoax dossier to set him up?). Six months later, Obama 'saw few signs of improvement.'
Obama returned to the White House in December, with a 'more urgent' message: the re-election campaign was behind schedule in building out field operations, and that an 'insular group of advisers' in the West Wing was hamstringing the effort.
Now, it's really bad...
Three months later, the 2024 general election is under way, and Biden is indeed in trouble. His stubbornly low approval ratings have sunk into the high 30s, worse than those of any other recent President seeking re-election. He’s trailed or tied Trump in most head-to-head matchups for months. Voters express concerns about his policies, his leadership, his age, and his competency. The coalition that carried Biden to victory in 2020 has splintered; the Democrats’ historic advantage with Black, Latino, and Asian American voters has dwindled to lows not seen since the civil rights movement. -TIME
Meanwhile, Biden's inner circle is "defiantly sanguine" as a "fog of dread" descends on Democrats.
The rest of the TIME article is full of anecdotes of dissatisfied Democrats, particularly young voters such as 20-year-old Aidan Kohn-Murphy.
It has nothing to do, as many assume, with the President’s age. With palpable frustration, Kohn-Murphy enumerates the list of perceived policy “betrayals” as though they were “tattooed on the back of my hand.”
According to the report, GenZ voters "don’t understand why they should be compelled to cast their ballot for a candidate who has done so many things that are against their values," said Kohn-Murphy.
Losing the minority vote
In 2020, Biden carried 87% of the black vote. Now, he's polling at just 63%, a sharp decline. Meanwhile four years ago he won hispanic votes by a ratio of 2 to 1. He now trails Trump in that bloc.
Biden's support of Israel amid the Gaza war has "tanked his standing with Muslim and Arab voters," particularly in "must-win Michigan."
Overall, Biden’s advantage over Trump among nonwhite Americans has shrunk from almost 50 points in 2020 to 12, according to the latest Times/Siena poll.
"It boils down to voters of color, and those voters are pissed," said one former Biden campaign and White House official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "I think it’s very likely he’ll lose."
What's more, nearly two dozen senior Democratic sources told TIME that Biden's "campaign mechanics, structure, and staffing over most of the past year are partly to blame as well."
While Obama was marching to re-election over the summer of 2012, his campaign head count topped 900. Despite plans to hire 350 new staffers, the Biden campaign ended 2023 with only around 70 paid employees, according to campaign finance filings.
Biden advisers don't care about the president's dismal numbers with young and nonwhite voters, as the "Biden brain trust" thinks they'll vote for him again regardless.
"We’ve reached out to this group of nonwhite and young voters earlier than any presidential campaign ever has," according to senior adviser Becca Siegel.
Good luck with that...
