Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are neck and neck, according to the final poll commissioned by the New York Post ahead of Tuesday’s presidential election.
The survey shows Trump and Harris tied 49 percent to 49 percent, with 2 percent saying they would vote for someone else. The results erase a Harris’s 4 percentage-point lead from the Post’s last poll in October, when she led him 51 percent to 47 percent.
“The narrow margin suggests a victory for Trump in the all-important Electoral College. In 2016, the Republican nominee defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton despite losing the popular vote by 2.1 percentage points — and most polls indicate an even closer race in the raw vote total this time around,” the Post’s survey analysis notes.
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C-SPANThe survey found a large age gap between young voters and older voters, in terms of who they support. Harris leads Trump 59 percent to 39 percent among voters ages 18 to 34, while Trump leads 56 percent to 42 percent among those 55 and older, which tends to be a more active voter demographic.
By sex, Harris leads among women 53 percent to 46 percent, while Trump has more sway with men, 51 percent to 46 percent, the survey found.
When survey respondents were asked to give two reasons why they support Trump, 58 percent of Republican voters answered that Americans had a better quality of life under the 45th president. Three in ten said Trump will revive the economy, and 26 percent said they support Trump because they believe he will prevent more illegal immigrants from flooding the southern border and deport those who are already here illegally.
Trump and Harris are tied 44 percent to 44 percent among overall survey respondents about who is most likely to improve Americans’ quality of life, the survey found.
However, 48 percent of respondents say Trump’s time in office was better for them personally, while 37 percent say they same of President Joe Biden’s term.
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C-SPANAs of Monday, the polling average from RealClearPolitics showed Trump with a slight 0.1 point advantage.
On the same day in 2020, Biden was ahead of Trump 6.9 points, and in 2016, Clinton was ahead 3.2 points, according to RCP’s analysis.
The Leger poll was conducted for the New York Post with 1,044 Americans online between Oct. 31 and Nov. 3, including 950 likely voters. The margin of error is ±3 percentage points.
