Trump Dominating Sunbelt States Key To Harris Win: NYT Poll

Donald Trump is riding a wave of momentum across the Sun Belt, according to a new poll, which shows the former president ahead in key battleground states like Arizona and Georgia, with North Carolina also leaning in his favor. In a post-debate bump, Trump has solidified his lead in two of those states which he lost to Joe Biden in 2020, Arizona and Georgia, while Kamala Harris struggles to close the gap as she contends with both voter skepticism and a rising Trump campaign.

Trump’s resurgence in these states signals a sharp contrast to Harris’s relatively narrow lead in other battleground areas like Pennsylvania. The most recent poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College from Sept. 17 to 21 reveal Trump ahead in Arizona by five points, leading Harris 50% to 45%. This marks a significant shift from earlier polls where Harris was ahead, thanks in part to Latino voters shifting away from the Vice President.

Georgia, another crucial state, shows Trump maintaining a 49% to 45% advantage, while North Carolina — historically a Republican stronghold — remains more competitive, with Trump holding a slim lead of 49% to 47%.

As both campaigns focus heavily on these states, the pressure is mounting. Harris’s campaign has enjoyed a spike in donations and enthusiasm following her recent debate performance, but the polling suggests that Trump’s aggressive "America First" messaging is resonating deeply with voters worried about economic uncertainty, immigration, and the nation’s future.

According to the report, the Sun Belt states are key to a Harris victory in November.

While these three Sun Belt states have drawn a great deal of attention from both the Trump and Harris camps, North Carolina and Georgia are especially essential to the former president’s hopes of returning to the White House, analysts say. Ms. Harris could win even while losing all three of these states, though it would be difficult.

One Trump supporter in Georgia, Tyler Stembridge, expressed concern over the country’s trajectory. "Whatever road we’re on right now just, to me, does not look like it’s going to end well," he told the NY Times.

The polls also reveal key vulnerabilities for both candidates. Harris’s challenge lies in winning over undecided voters, with about 15% of voters across these three states still undecided or open to switching. Trump’s character remains a sticking point, with concerns over his behavior looming largest in North Carolina, where 44% of undecided voters cited his personality as problematic.

For now, however, Trump’s economic message and promises to address inflation seem to be working in his favor. A majority of respondents in these Sun Belt states believe Trump would do a better job managing the economy, with 55% saying he is better equipped to tackle inflation compared to 42% who favor Harris.