Trump Effect: Denmark Announces ‘Massive’ Rearmament, Acknowledges ‘Consequences’ for Welfare Spending

Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced on Tuesday that the Kingdom of Denmark will “massively” increase its military spending as European nations grapple with the reality that they can no longer merely rely on the American taxpayer to subsidise their defence.

Copenhagen will set out this week plans to “increase the fighting power of Danish defence”, Prime Minister Frederiksen said on Tuesday in what may be seen as the first major domino to fall in U.S. President Donald Trump’s goal of transforming the security architecture of the Western NATO military alliance.

“We have to rearm massively to look after Denmark. And we must rearm massively to avoid war,” Frederiksen said, according to the Danish daily BT.

While she did not elaborate on exact figures on Tuesday, the Danish Broadcasting Corporation (DR) reported on Monday that the government was planning on establishing a special defence fund of 50 billion kroner (£5.5/$7 billion), with further investments to come later.

The state broadcaster said that 25 billion kroner are expected to be spent this year, with the remainder to be used in 2026. For the sake of speed, the PM said on Tuesday that the fund will be spent at the discretion of the chief of defence.

It has also been reported that the “rapid rearmament” will also take place outside of the usual EU procedures for arms procurement under emergency measures.

The decision by the liberal government in Copenhagen to double down on its defence came in the wake of the Munich Security Conference in which Trump administration officials impressed upon European allies that they will be expected to provide for the security of the region rather than expecting the U.S. to underwrite their defence.

President Trump has long accused wealthy European nations of taking advantage of the United States through the NATO military alliance, with most having failed until following the Russian invasion of Ukraine to meet their defence spending requirements under the assumption of U.S. protection while spending their own money on generous welfare programmes.

Prime Minister Frederiksen acknowledged Tuesday that the new investments into the military would have “consequences” on the ability to fund its welfare programmes but claimed that it would be a necessary tradeoff and that the government was still committed to preserving its welfare state.

Denmark has already doubled its military spending since 2020, taking the country’s expenditures to over 2.3 per cent of GDP, surpassing the 2 per cent baseline requirement for NATO members. The new spending is likely to take the total to around 3 per cent of GDP, still short of the Trump call for 5 per cent. However, the move from Copenhagen is well ahead of almost all other European NATO members and may serve to pressure other European powers also to step up their defence investments.

In addition to pressure from Washington, the decision to increase military spending came after the Defense Intelligence Service (FE) warned last week that Russia would likely be able to rebound from the war in Ukraine and be able to soon re-arm for potential future conflicts.

According to the assessment, which assumed that the Ukraine war would end shortly, Russia would be ready for another war on its borders within six months. After two years, the FE said that Russia could pose “a credible threat to individual or several NATO countries and thus be ready for a regional war against several countries in the Baltic Sea region”.

The report went on to warn that in around five years, Moscow would be prepared for a “large-scale war on the European continent where the United States is not getting involved”. Yet the intel agency noted that their assumptions were based on NATO members not upgrading their militaries at the same time, thus increasing the pressure on the government to invest in the defence of the nation.

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