Trump Is Surging

Few outside some bitter Republican circles are still arguing that Donald Trump can’t win the 2024 election. What was conventional wisdom a few months ago has fallen to pieces. Trump has already won the primary, not that Republicans have any reason to regret it: he is outperforming Joe Biden in the polls, despite being indicted four times, a remarkable feat that only Trump could pull off. Notably, Trump ran far behind Biden in 2020, when Trump barely “lost,” something that enraged many liberals at the time.

2024 is not destined to be a repeat: it is a new year with a different incumbent, and different concerns. The pandemic has faded, and rather than a virus, Americans are worried about gas prices, immigration, housing, terrorism, and even world war. This is a winning issue set for Trump. Democrats are only winning on one major issue: abortion. But even here, Trump has shown better instincts than many Republicans by moderating, blunting the impact of the left’s messaging about “extreme” restrictions.

Democrats have one other card to play: convict Trump in a kangaroo court and hope that the public recoils at a “criminal.” But what if voters just don’t care? The war in Israel has absorbed the world’s attention, and for a few days at least, everyone has forgotten about Trump and his legal battles.

The war has raised anew the specter of Islamic terrorism, giving Trump a fresh opportunity to flex his strong record on immigration and foreign policy. Under Trump, jihadism virtually disappeared as he crushed the ISIS caliphate, sealed the border, and stabilized the Middle East. The fool Biden has allowed dangerous people from every corner of the world into the United States, and his weakness has left the world teetering on the brink of Armageddon.

In Trump, America had a serious president disguised as a comedian. Biden is a clown pretending to be a statesman, and his weakness is catching up with him.

The historic debacle at the southern border is receiving sustained mainstream media attention for the first time, as the endless influx of immigrants floods blue urban centers. Biden’s late expedient pivot toward erecting a border barrier vindicates Trump and exposes the insanity of Biden’s open border policy. In any case, it’s too late for Biden to unring the bell: millions of illegal immigrants are already here, and foreigners are going to keep taking their chances at crossing now rather than wait for Trump to return.

Of course, immigration is also an economic issue: as people pour in, housing gets more expensive, the burden on public services increases, and cheap wages get even cheaper.

Nobody is falling for Biden’s fantastic boasts about “Bidenomics” as consumers pick up side gigs to keep pace with the skyrocketing cost of living. And despite the left’s spin, most voters are aware of Biden’s brazen corruption. This makes for a potent election narrative: as economic tides swallow up ordinary people, Biden and his privileged son are able to avoid accountability for their criminal grifting. The spectacle of slanted justice could defuse the impact of Trump’s overcooked prosecutions, which have already begun to bore the public.

There are other unwelcome distractions working against Trump: House Republicans are running around like chickens without heads, when they could be working together to investigate Biden.

But if there is a silver lining to the absurd lawfare campaign against Trump, it is that Democrats can smell defeat. They’re not getting rid of Biden – they’re too cautious for that – but they’re not confident either. If it were a fair fight, and the election were held today, Trump would likely win, and Democrats know it. Prosecuting a political opponent is a method of last resort.

This may be an optimistic assessment of the circumstances. But Biden is not getting any sharper, and there will be plenty of chaos to come in the months ahead.

[ZH: And then there's the wildcard...]