Former President Donald Trump continues to enjoy a lead among independent voters, offering a key advantage in the ongoing race against Vice President Kamala Harris, according to a new Gallup poll. The survey, conducted from Sept. 3-15, reveals that while both candidates have favorability ratings under 50%, Trump enjoys a crucial boost from independents.
Among all U.S. adults, Trump holds a 46% favorability rating, while Harris stands at 44%. That said, both candidates reflect more unfavorable views from the broader electorate, with Trump’s unfavorable rating is seven percentage points higher than his favorable, while Harris faces a 10-point deficit.
Look at this from Gallup
— Jack Poso 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) September 18, 2024
The debate made Trump's favorables go up and Kamala's go down https://t.co/EYUZCSD1U7
Despite their overall lukewarm reception, Trump has emerged as the preferred choice among independents, a group that could be pivotal in the upcoming election. According to the poll, 44% of independents view Trump favorably, compared to just 35% for Harris. This nine-point gap could be a significant factor, especially in swing states and among undecided voters.
Independents Hold Key to Trump’s Comeback
This lead among independents may be the ace up Trump’s sleeve as he seeks to reclaim the White House. His appeal to this crucial voting bloc is a rare bright spot in a political landscape where both he and Harris struggle to win over the broader public. Harris, on the other hand, has seen her favorability slide following the initial bump she received after her nomination, while Trump has regained five points in favorability since last month, putting him back on par with his ratings from June.
Trump’s favorability among independents is particularly notable given the overall trend of presidential candidates receiving less than 50% positive ratings. Since 2016, when Trump and Hillary Clinton became the least favorably viewed candidates in Gallup's history, candidates have struggled to achieve majority approval. The former president, however, is currently viewed more favorably than at a similar point in both the 2016 and 2020 campaigns, signaling that he may be gaining momentum in a race where neither candidate has a clear public mandate.
More via Gallup:
Vice Presidential Candidates Still Unknown to About One in Five Americans
The vice presidential candidates’ favorable ratings are not yet as concrete as their running mates’ are. About one in five U.S. adults do not yet have an opinion of Democratic Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (19%) or Republican Ohio U.S. Sen. JD Vance (17%). While Vance’s unfavorable rating (47%) outpaces his favorable rating (36%), Walz is viewed favorably (41%) and unfavorably (40%) by roughly equal shares of Americans.
Both vice presidential candidates receive largely favorable scores from their party base -- 79% of Democrats rate Walz positively, and 74% of Republicans have a favorable view of Vance. Independents have a more favorable opinion of Walz (37%) than Vance (30%), and this group is the most likely to say they have not yet formed an opinion of the presidential candidates’ running mates.
The overall favorable ratings for Walz and Vance are in line with those of other vice presidential candidates at a similar point in the campaign since 2012. Prior to 2012, favorable ratings of the presidential running mates in August or early September were generally higher, with at least one of the candidates garnering majority-level favorability.
Job Approval Ratings of Harris and Biden Down Slightly
The vice president’s current job approval rating matches her favorable rating, with 44% of Americans saying they approve. Last month, her approval rating was 47%. Harris’ current approval rating is 95% among Democrats, 38% among independents and 2% among Republicans.
After giving up his bid for the presidency in July, President Joe Biden enjoyed a boost in his approval rating to 43% last month -- which has slipped to 39%, not far from the 36% taken in the weeks leading up to his announcement that he would not seek reelection.
Democrats’ rating of Biden is 85%, independents’ is 31% and Republicans’ is 3%.
Bottom Line
Both presidential candidates continue to be viewed unfavorably by majorities of Americans. Should those evaluations hold through the end of the campaign, it would mark the third consecutive presidential campaign in which neither candidate garnered majority-level favorable ratings from the public. In most cases since 1992, when one of the presidential candidates was viewed significantly more favorably than the other, the higher-rated candidate won. The current similarity between Trump’s and Harris’ favorable ratings may be a sign of a tight race.
