President Donald Trump is surging in the last 50 days of the presidential campaign, recent polls suggest, while Vice President Kamala Harris appears to be coming down from a sugar high.
The five polls set forth below are significant for several reasons. First, the polls, all conducted during the second Trump assassination attempt, on September 15, do not fully account for the impact of the horrific event. That suggests Trump will see more favorable polling in the coming days.
Second, all the polls sampled respondents (likely voters) after the second debate between Trump and Harris. The Harris campaign hoped its candidate’s momentum would continue after voters saw the two spar, but the data appears to show the debate ultimately hurt Harris and helped Trump.
For case and point, RMG Research released a survey with a large sample on Friday that showed a two point net national swing in Trump’s favor since the debate and the second assassination attempt:
Third, several of the polls suggest Harris faces a tough math equation to win in November. Polling shows Trump leads in Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania; that is enough to get Trump the Electoral College’s 270 without Nevada or Michigan. Conversely, an Emerson poll found Trump winning in Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, which is enough to elect Trump without North Carolina, Nevada, or Michigan.
Fourth, Trump leads in some national surveys. If Trump wins the popular vote, the election could be a historic landslide for the president with the sweep of many swing states. Trump has a 70 percent chance of winning Electoral College, according to RealClearPolitics and Silver Bulletin polling.
Many of the polls are within the margin of error, however, leading some Republicans to warn about too much “happy talk.” Trump still must overcome his political opponents: The administrative state, the media, Obama/Clinton world, and a Democrat candidate who appears to say or do whatever it takes to win.“Republicans need every patriot to volunteer to get out the vote for President Trump and volunteer to ensure election integrity,” GOP strategist Alex deGrasse told Breitbart News. “We need the grassroots to sign up to get trained to work as poll watchers to help secure President Trump’s victory. We cannot rest until we successfully protect every legal vote.”
Below are five positive polls for Trump in the past week:
ONE:
Siena/New York Times: Trump and Harris are tied nationally:
TWO:
Emerson: Trump leads Harris in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arizona:
THREE:
Washington Post: Trump is tied with Harris in Pennsylvania via a head-to-head matchup:
FOUR:
Cygnal/Carolina Journal: Trump leads Harris by one in North Carolina:
FIVE:
Rasmussen: Trump leads Harris nationally by one point:
Honorable mention…
Gallup: Trump’s favorability rating increased, while Harris’s decreased:
Wendell Husebo is a political reporter with Breitbart News and a former RNC War Room Analyst. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. Follow Wendell on “X” @WendellHusebø or on Truth Social @WendellHusebo.
