Playoff scenarios, inactives and incentives for Week 18
Seventeen weeks have flown by, and we are once again at the end of an NFL season. But we are about to get one of the best final weeks in recent memory because 11 teams have a chance to clinch a playoff spot with just five spots remaining.
Ten games on the slate could potentially affect who makes the playoffs, and some teams could have an easier path with players sitting out to stay healthy for the playoffs.
Some players have contract incentives on the line.
Let's take a look at the biggest matchups of the weekend.
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Wilson footballs are pictured with the NFL logo before a game between the Detroit Lions and Jacksonville Jaguars at Ford Field Dec. 4, 2022, in Detroit. (Nic Antaya/Getty Images)
Games with playoff implications
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens, Saturday, 4:30 p.m.
For the Steelers it's simple. They need a win and one of the following to happen: Bills loss, Jaguars loss or tie or a Colts-Texas tie. They're not eliminated with a loss or tie, but it's rather wonky.
But they are getting a bit of a gift. Since the Ravens have already clinched the No. 1 seed, likely league MVP Lamar Jackson will not play.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts, Saturday, 8:15 p.m.
This one is pretty simple: Win and in, lose and out.
A Jacksonville loss or tie gives the winner of this game the AFC South crown.
If this game ends in a tie, though, all hell breaks loose in the AFC.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans, Sunday, 1 p.m.
The Jags are division champs with a win. But if they lose, they will need a lot of help to make the playoffs as a seventh seed. They would need losses by Pittsburgh and Denver and for the Colts-Texans game not be a tie.
Trevor Lawrence remains questionable.
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Neither team can make the playoffs solely by winning this game. They both need help, but whoever loses is out.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers, Sunday, 1 p.m.
The Bucs win the NFC South with a win over the lowly Panthers, who don't even have their first-round pick next season, which will likely be No. 1 overall.
Baker Mayfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers warms up before a game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium Nov. 5, 2023, in Houston. (Tim Warner/Getty Images)
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers, Sunday, 1 p.m.
The Packers control their own destiny. Win and they're in the playoffs. But…
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions, Sunday, 1 p.m.
If the Packers lose and the Vikings win, the Packers are out.
The Vikings are holding on for dear life. They need a win, a Packers loss, a Seahawks loss and then either a Buccaneers or Saints loss.
Anyone ever see "Angels in the Outfield?" It can happen.
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The Lions are already NFC North champs and will get either the No. 2 or No. 3 seed. The Lions and Dallas are both 11-5, but Dallas has the tiebreaker after last week's controversy.
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals, Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
If the Packers lose (or tie) and the Seahawks win, Green Bay is out, and the Seahawks are in. But if Green Bay wins or Seattle loses, the Seahawks are done.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins, Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
The winner of this game clinches the AFC East, but if Buffalo loses, the Bills could miss out on the playoffs.
Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills passes against the Miami Dolphins at Highmark Stadium Oct. 1, 2023, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)
If the Jags and Steelers both win, and Saturday's Colts-Texans game doesn't end in a tie, Buffalo will need to win to stay alive.
If the Jags or Steelers lose or tie, or if the Colts-Texans game is a tie, Buffalo is in the playoffs.
Got all that? Good. Now, let's take note of who will not be playing this weekend.
Inactives
Kansas City Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes
The Chiefs clinched the AFC's No. 3 seed, meaning they'll be in action next weekend. Mahomes will rest after maybe the worst regular season of his career.
San Francisco 49ers' Brock Purdy/Christian McCaffrey
The Niners are locked into the No. 1 seed, but they've opted to give two of their top starters an extra bye week. McCaffrey is also nursing a calf injury.
Christian McCaffrey and Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers celebrate a touchdown during the third quarter against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field Dec. 15, 2022, in Seattle. (Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
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Baltimore Ravens' Lamar Jackson/Odell Beckham Jr.
The Ravens earned a bye in the AFC on the back of likely MVP Jackson. We'll see if Baltimore rests anyone else Saturday.
Cleveland Browns' Joe Flacco
Flacco has turned back the clock since joining the Browns, but with Cleveland locked into the No. 5 seed, he'll rest before trying to continue his magic carpet ride.
Los Angeles Rams' Matthew Stafford/Kyren Williams/Cooper Kupp
Note how Puka Nacua isn't on this list. That's because he's 29 yards away from setting the all-time record for most receiving yards in a rookie season.
But with the Rams set to be either the sixth or seventh seed, they will rest players who have been battling injuries already this year.
Tennessee Titans' Will Levis
This could be Ryan Tannehill's farewell in Nashville.
For the gamblers out there, we've got you covered. Some players will be playing for extra cash this weekend (all incentives via the Action Network).
Incentives
Tennessee Titans' DeAndre Hopkins
Maybe Tannehill and DeAndre Hopkins can connect a few times. Hopkins would like that. He's 49 yards away from a $1 million bonus. He'd get $250,000 more if he can grab seven catches and another quarter million if he scores twice.
DeAndre Hopkins of the Tennessee Titans in the second quarter against the Chicago Bears during a preseason game at Soldier Field Aug. 12, 2023, in Chicago. (Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
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Houston Texans' Devin Singletary
With a playoff spot on the line, the running back will be fighting for more. If Singletary can total enough snaps to be on the field for 55% of the snaps for the entire season, he'll net $250,000. He's slated to make $125,000 for playing half of them so far, and since he's become the featured back in recent weeks, it seems likely he'll get a quarter million.
Atlanta Falcons' Bud Dupree
Time to see if the Falcons care more about winning or money.
Dupree has played 62% of his team's snaps this season but will make $1 million if he plays 65%. He's played over 65% in 10 of the Falcons' 16 games this season.
Seattle Seahawks' Geno Smith
The quarterback has some extra motivation to make the playoffs — $2 million to be exact. That's his bonus if the Seahawks clinch a playoff spot.
Green Bay Packers' Jordan Love
Love gets $500,000 if the Pack make the playoffs.
Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers looks to pass during the first quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium Dec. 31, 2023, in Minneapolis. (David Berding/Getty Images)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Baker Mayfield
Mayfield is likely to earn $1 million for playing in 85% of snaps this season, but if the Bucs make the playoffs, he'll earn another million.
Kansas City Chiefs' Chris Jones
One sack this game will mean a $1.25 million bonus for Jones.
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