The astoundingly rapid evolution of drone warfare in the Ukraine war has led to some engagements where almost all of the fighting was performed by autonomous and semi-autonomous machines, both on the ground and in the air – bringing the world closer to the long-feared state of “hyperwar,” where human commanders might not be able to plan and communicate quickly enough to control their machines.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on Monday highlighted a remarkable December offensive by Ukrainian forces in which none of the forces on the front line were human:
The December attack involved about 50 unmanned aerial vehicles and destroyed a Russian position north of the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, according to the force that conducted the operation, Ukraine’s 13th National Guard Brigade Khartiya. The Wall Street Journal viewed video footage of the assault.
The attack served as a proof of concept. Though it had its problems, other Ukrainian units are now planning similar missions.
It did have some teething issues. The land drones in particular struggled with the terrain. And, while the drones did the fighting, good leadership, planning and drone operators remained essential, the U.S.-trained brigade said.
The carefully rehearsed attack kicked off with a half-dozen unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) that were basically rolling bombs, backed up by swarms of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that performed various support and reconnaissance services, including keeping up signal strength for the entire attack force. The drones were piloted by human operators in first-person view mode, like a video game.
UGVs have proven to be a greater technical challenge than UAVs because they have to deal with terrain and obstructions, but the Ukrainian operation reportedly reached their targets – at which point Russian drones entered the fray. A machine-gun battle was fought between a Ukrainian UGV and a Russian UAV.
The overall operation appears to have been at least minimally successful at taking out some Russian positions and inflicting casualties, although the 13th Brigade – and friendly foreign observers – were most keenly interested in the attack as a learning experience and proof of concept.
Besides successfully navigating UGVs over rough terrain, the drone operators managed to overcome problems like electronic jamming and temporary signal loss by including backup drones and signal boosters in their attack force. The drones also largely managed to avoid interfering with each other’s signals, which is a major concern when large numbers of remote-piloted vehicles are deployed at once.
One of the most interesting comments about the operation came from land drone pilot Lt. Andriy Kopach, who saw the massive, coordinated drone attack as “the first step of the new war,” but was also surprised by how exhausting it was.
“Ukraine, the U.S. and other countries are working on artificial-intelligence programs, including so-called swarming technology, which will allow aerial drones to coordinate among themselves. But the December operation still needed exact coordination between different command posts operated by human soldiers,” the WSJ noted.
This is the key factor pushing autonomous weapons toward hyperwar, a scenario in which large numbers of autonomous drones clash at speeds the human mind cannot keep pace with. As the Ukrainian drone unit discovered, micromanaging large numbers of piloted drones, on the ground and in the air, is incredibly draining.
Autonomous systems with artificial intelligence (AI) coordination can do it without getting tired or overwhelmed, and they will be able to respond to changing battlefield conditions more quickly.
The Ukrainian unit interviewed by the WSJ might reasonably be seen as one of the best and most experienced drone warfare squads in the world today, and managing 50 land and air drones in a single coordinated operation against a handful of Russian targets nearly exhausted them. The first army that can transfer control away from humans to all-seeing AI with unlimited endurance and lightning-fast reflexes will gain a tremendous advantage.
There is little doubt that autonomous drones will be able to outfight distant human operators looking through computer monitors and wrestling with joysticks. Some of Ukraine’s new UGV minesweepers literally weigh a ton. There will be autonomous vehicles with enough armor and firepower to be considered tanks soon enough, and they will need sophisticated anti-aircraft weapons to fend off swarms of smaller, cheaper UAVs.
The balance of drone warfare has seesawed between Ukraine and Russia throughout the conflict. Ukraine’s early advantages, including top-shelf Turkish-made attack drones that could be launched out of pickup trucks, clearly took the Russian military by surprise, but they adapted quickly.
Ukraine might have the edge again at the moment. Moscow is furious about the success of Ukraine’s “deep strike” drones against Russian oil, gas, and ammunition storage facilities. Ukrainian commanders say their success is due as much to careful planning and skilled, seasoned human operators as it is to the technical sophistication of their drones.
“The strikes are good for morale, complicate Russian planning, and tie up air defenses. They show that Russia isn’t invulnerable and cannot attack Ukraine with impunity,” senior Carnegie Endowment for International Peace fellow Michael Kofman told the Washington Post on Thursday.
“But unlike cruise missiles, most drones launched are shot down,” Kofman continued. “The damage they inflict to Russian infrastructure has so far not been able to change the dynamic in this war, but nonetheless is something Moscow undoubtedly wants to halt.”
This could prove to be another incentive for developing hyperwar technology, as autonomous drone swarms with less need for top-ranked human operators could conduct deep strike missions with more strategic impact – and autonomous defensive drones might be the only effective countermeasure.
In the early hours of Thursday morning, Ukrainian drones were reportedly able to severely damage the Engels-2 airbus in Satarov Oblast, Russia. According to Ukrainian intelligence officials, it was one of the heaviest drone attacks of the war and it may have compromised or knocked out an airbase that was vital to Russia’s massive aerial attacks on Ukrainian cities.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) claimed Russia’s air defenses were largely “ineffective” against the drone swarm, and caused major accidental damage to civilian structures around the airbase.
The Russian Defense Ministry, on the other hand, claimed Russian forces were able to shoot down 132 Ukrainian drones overnight, 54 of them over Saratov Oblast.
The great fear looming over hyperwar is that human commanders might not be able to keep tabs on the lightning-fast attacks and defenses conducted by autonomous swarms. The greater fear for military planners today is falling behind in the sort of rapidly mutating drone war fought between Ukraine and Russia, in which ages pass every few weeks.
