Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,
Expectations are for solid US employment numbers later today, which aligns with the underlying trend based on leading indicators. Long positioning in Treasuries could see yields bouncing higher if the data notably beats expectations, but concern about global trade and tariffs is ultimately likely to mean a bid for bonds will soon return.
There’s always unease when everyone seems to agree, but general expectations are for firm jobs numbers today, with payrolls expected at 175k and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.1%. Most other indicators of the health of the labor market over the last month have been positive, also pointing to a decent payrolls number.
