Last month, amid speculation that the US was well on its disinflationary way to the Fed's 3% target (because not even the shoeshine boy believes inflation will drop to 2% sustainably ever again), we warned that the January CPI print would be a "hot" inflation surprise, and boy were we right with every single metric - and especially the Supercore number - coming above estimates!
HOT HOT HOT
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 12, 2025
CPI 0.5% MoM, Exp. 0.3%
CPI Core 0.4% MoM, Exp. 0.3%
CPI 3.0% YoY, Exp. 2.9%
CPI Core 3.3% YoY, Exp. 3.1%
On Wednesday, don't expect the BLS to report anything nearly as hot for the February CPI, as the January price spike gives way to a broad easing in February prices (and not just eggs). Here is what Wall Street expects:
