"The Most Important Tesla Event Ever"
Tesla’s much awaited Robotaxi event, “We, Robot,” is set for tomorrow, live from Warner Bros. Discovery Studios in Hollywood, Los Angeles. The event starts at 7 p.m. on October 10 and will be livestreamed on Tesla’s social media platforms, including X and YouTube.
It's widely rumored that the event will feature prototypes of Tesla’s upcoming autonomous vehicle, which has been spotted around the studio grounds and key locations in San Francisco and LA.
Tesla has been actively collecting Full Self-Driving (FSD) data in these areas ahead of the event, fueling speculation about new advancements like Robotaxi sanitization and wireless EV charging. As we noted weeks ago, invites were sent to winners of a shareholder raffle, with tickets arriving just days before the event.
"Join us for We, Robot — our official unveiling of the future of autonomy," the invitation read.
Wedbush's Dan Ives has said of the event: “We believe this is a pivotal time for Tesla as the company prepares to release its years of Robotaxi R&D shadowed behind the curtains, while Musk & Co. lay out the company’s vision for the future."
Some enthusiasts are calling it "the most important Tesla event ever."
Just three more days to go.
— Nic Cruz Patane (@niccruzpatane) October 7, 2024
This is the most important Tesla event ever. pic.twitter.com/NSYZd8ewYn
Cybercab Expectations
The folks at NotTeslaApp expect: "Tesla to deliver a small, two-door sedan with two seats. The car is expected to have four wheels, although there was some speculation of three wheels at one point". They write that it'll "likely include a good amount of trunk space for luggage as well"
They write that Tesla's Robotaxi is expected to be smaller than current models, resembling a compact version of the Model 3 with a simplified interior focused on autonomy and low-cost production. It will likely feature a single central screen like the Model 3, but with a stripped-down UI displaying key information such as ETA and fare price.
While Tesla may not reveal much about FSD hardware, the Robotaxi will probably include the upcoming Hardware 5 FSD suite or new hardware designed for redundancy and safety, essential for autonomous fleet operations.
According to Electrek, the robotaxi is rumored to be “Cybertruck-like” in design, without a steering wheel or pedals, and potentially smaller in size. A prototype was spotted testing at the Warner Bros. lot. Tesla may also showcase its latest Optimus humanoid robots with a focus on autonomous features.
Gene Munster with Deepwater Asset Management tells MarketWatch he expects "at least a robotaxi prototype, and talk of a 'Model 2' cheaper EV".
"What will most likely be on display is a demonstration of the latest iteration of FSD [full self-driving] software and a demonstration of a fully autonomous 'cybercab' in a closed or semi-closed course," Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas wrote last month, per Yahoo Finance.
He believes the robotaxi will come from the preexisting fleet of Tesla vehicles already on the road:
While the cybercab — a vehicle envisioned as one without a steering wheel or pedals — may be the natural fit for a robotaxi, Jonas believes it is the preexisting fleet of Teslas out on the road that, when combined with FSD and Tesla’s upcoming rideshare mobility app, will allow owners of those Tesla EVs to put those vehicles on Tesla’s rideshare service. The true game changer would be unlocking the potential of those vehicles, he said.
“It is our expectation that Tesla will offer a 'dual' approach with respect to autonomous ridesharing: (1) the fully autonomous app-based cybercab and (2) a 'supervised' autonomous/FSD rideshare service. We think the latter of these may get the most attention or have the greatest room to surprise investors, at least near term,” he said.
Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu added his expectations: “For Robotaxi Day on Oct 10th, we expect an unveiling of the ‘CyberCab’ at the venue, [and] some type of robotaxi demo … Moreover, Tesla should unveil the new lower cost vehicle slated for SOP [start of production] next year (“Model 2” or cheaper/smaller Model 3 variant).”
Expectations For Release Timeline And Final Product
Expectations for a final or near-final working product seem low. "Few observers, if any, expect a fully functioning product," Reuters wrote.
"We believe the robotaxi event will be long on vision, and short on immediate deliverables or incremental revenue drivers," Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi said.
Tesla executives will need to “reinforce to consumers and investors that they continue to be innovators,” Gene Munster with Deepwater Asset Management told MarketWatch. “The bar on the robotaxi is is pretty high, but the rest of the stuff is pretty easy, they don’t need to roll a vehicle out there. They can just talk about it,” he added.
Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions LLC, added: “Tesla’s history is overpromise and underdeliver, so whatever timing is put on this vehicle, it’s going to be pushed back. We are still considering what promises will make it to production and what won’t".
Longtime Tesla bull and Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas says to “keep expectations well managed” for the event.
“We think this [robotaxi fleet] is still several years away and numerous technological hurdles, safety tests, and regulatory approvals are still standing in the way,” Garrett Nelson of CFRA told Yahoo Finance.
Impact On Tesla Stock Price
As far as impact on the stock price, Elliot Johnson, chief investment officer at Evolve ETFs, which manages investments in Tesla, told Reuters: "They need to get going because this has been sort of discussed, rumored, talked about and announced in various forms for a while."
He says nothing announced this week will have a financial impact for one to two years, the report says. Barron's has also speculated that the event could be a "sell the news" event. Columnist Al Root wrote that "Robotaxi Day may be Elon Musk’s last chance to convince investors that Tesla still has it".
Edison Yu has been telling his clients to be “tactically cautious” with the stock.
Reaction By Other Autonomous Driving Companies
Elsewhere in autonomous driving, Investing.com did a good job laying out what competitors and the rest of the industry may be watching.
The U.S. rideshare market, currently just 1% of total miles driven, could expand significantly with the introduction of autonomous vehicles (AVs), according to Morgan Stanley. While Tesla’s technological advancements may drive faster AV adoption, the transition faces challenges in scaling and regulation.
Tesla's potential to launch a Level 4 (L4) autonomous service could yield a 41% cost advantage over Uber and Lyft, and 21% over Waymo, thanks to its camera-based approach versus Waymo's sensor-heavy system. Market trends in cities like Austin and Phoenix will indicate whether AVs can integrate effectively with rideshare platforms, a key concern for Uber's hybrid model strategy.
We'll know more in just hours...
