Business activity in NY State has been volatile (according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey) in the last few months. After spiking on Trump's election victory, the survey slumped back into contraction in December and January. But February saw activity re-ignite with a better than expected +5.7 print (0.0 exp)...
“Manufacturing activity edged higher in New York State in February. Input price increases picked up to the fastest pace in nearly two years, and optimism about the outlook dropped noticeably.”
~Richard Deitz, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed
There is a little here for everyone under the hood - New orders spiked in February BUT expectations for New Orders going forward plunged....
Source: Bloomberg
...and perhaps worse, inflation fears are accelerating...
Source: Bloomberg
Employment levels also moved lower.
So take your pick - sentiment higher, soaring inflation expectations, and lagging growth. Smells very stagflationary to us...
