With usage of The Fed's emergency funding facility rising once again to a new record high last week - and banks stocks clubbed like a baby seal - all eyes are once again on just what The Fed can do to 'seasonally-adjust' the data to avoid the admission of any deposit run fears in domestic banks.
Total bank deposits - on a seasonally-adjusted basis - crashed by a massive $83.7BN last week (the biggest outflows since SVB) to the lowest since June...
Source: Bloomberg
Non-seasonally-adjusted, the deposit outflows were even yuuger -$129BN...
Source: Bloomberg
Is reality starting to set in for the decoupling between massive money market fund inflows and a relatively flat deposit base for the last few months...
Source: Bloomberg
Adjusting for foreign bank deposit flows, domestic bank deposit outflows were still massive, -$72BN SA, -$117BN NSA...
Source: Bloomberg
Total deposit delta since the SVB crisis are $280BN SA and $262BN NSA...
Source: Bloomberg
On the other side of the ledger, Large banks saw loan volumes shrink by $3.4BN while Small banks allegedly saw loan volumes rise by $3.3BN...
Source: Bloomberg
The key warning sign continues to trend lower (Small Banks' reserve constraint), supported above the critical level by The Fed's emergency funds (for now)...
Source: Bloomberg
As the green line shows, without The Fed's help, the crisis is back (and large bank cash needs a home - like picking up a small bank from the FDIC)...
QT really is about to blow up another small bank...
What's Jamie worried about?
