For the second time in a month, Goldman Sachs strategists cut both their US GDP forecast (while hiking their inflation outlook and recession odds, now at 35%) and their S&P 500 price target.
In notes published on Sunday, Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius (full note available here to pro subs) cited higher recession risk and the effect of tariffs on pushing prices and unemployment higher while slamming growth; at the same time Goldman chief equity strategist David Kostin revised his S&P forecast (full note also available to pro subs) which he previously slashed just three weeks ago, and now see the benchmark ending the year around 5,700 versus a previous estimate of 6,200 as of early march, and 6500 as of just a month ago (the new target implies gains of 2% from Friday’s close).
Below we excerpt a few highlights from the notes, while refusing to waste more than 5 minutes on either since Goldman's research desk (never to be confused with the FICC or S&T trading floor) has once again proven it has all the durability of a windsock, and has changed everything it predicted as recently as last November (after the election mind you) when the bank laid out its full-year 2025 forecast (which was hundreds of absolutely ridiculous and dead wrong pages) and which is now not even fit to be a paperweight.
