Last week brought another mixed bag of data, but it skewed net negative, and Goldman Sachs cut their Q1 GDP estimate to just 0.6% (the miss in personal spending took a notably large bite).
As Goldman Sachs head of hedge fund coverage, Tony Pasquariello notes, this was not lost on money managers: as you can see below, the market’s implied growth view has (more or less) converged down to where we think the economy is headed.
This benchmarks our cyclicals-vs-defensives pair (dark blue line) vs our expectations and market consensus for US GDP growth. to my eye, after a meaningful overshoot in the market, there’s no meaningful disjunction now
