The Sep 13 CPI print showed a pickup in inflation driven by energy prices; WTI moved from $67.92 on May 31 to $95 on Sept 28, 40% higher, and despite powerful pushback, a growing chorus now sees oil rising as high as $150, as a result of a whopping 3.3mm bpd supply/demand deficit in the just started4th quarter, implying further price appreciation (full note is here).
It's not just oil: when considering Ags, Morgan Stanley and JPM tell us that the dissolution of the Ukraine Black Sea Grain Initiative, export restrictions, and the coming El Nino combine to make upside risk more likely than downside risk (more here).
In metals, the potential for China to use fiscal stimulus would likely boost prices given China is ~50% of global demand for base metals.
