After that bizarre, "Ohio-driven" slump in initial claims in the late summer, the trend is once higher and the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time rose to a two month high of 217K, up from 212K, and above the 210K expected.
The Ohio initial claims 'Fraud' which many economists blamed for the early summer spike has been erased completely and claims from that state are again near record lows.
While initial claims resumed its climb, if still at deeply depressed levels, continuing claims was more ominous, and accelerated again, rising above 1.800 million for the first time since April, or 1,818 million to be precise (up sharply from 1.783 million), and well above expectations of an 1.818 million print.
With regard to continuing claims, Goldman reminds us that ongoing seasonal distortions have increasingly weighed on the level of continuing claims over the last six months, and we now expect that the reversal of those distortions could exert a cumulative boost of 375k to the level of continuing claims between now and March.
