By Michael Every of Rabobank
The Golden Path
USD/JPY is at 155, a fresh 34-year high, with the Yen slumping 10.2% year-to-date and suggestion that intervention may not come until we get to 160, a level last seen in 1986. USD/CAD is off recent lows at 1.37 but under pressure (as noted by Christian Lawrence): some suggest the Loonie could fall as far as 2 (so CAD/USD at 0.5) a decade from now. So, a higher US dollar. Which FX dominoes haven’t fallen yet, and when might they?
Australian CPI data suggest it will be hard to cut rates in 2024, as the median Sydney house price moves up to A$1.6m with them at 4.35%. Mexican CPI surprised to the upside, also suggesting further rate cuts may not roll out as had been priced in. Bank Indonesia shocked markets with a 25bp rate hike to 6.25% to try to relieve downwards pressure on IDR. So, what looks like higher rates for longer than had been expected. What breaks where, and when?
Geopolitical tensions will also be higher for longer. Europe made a dawn raid on a Chinese firm as Politico says: ‘EU to China: Open your public markets or we’ll close ours’. US Secretary of State Blinken is in Beijing against headlines warning of US sanctions on Chinese banks for helping Russia. President Biden signed the TikTok divest-or-ban bill, which Bloomberg warns will see China target US firms in kind. US military aid is already flowing to Taiwan, Ukraine, and Israel: the US is planning to convert old Pacific oil platforms to military bases; Ukraine was striking Russian energy targets even before it got access to new, longer-range US missiles; and Israel is closer to moving against Hamas in Rafah and Hezbollah in Lebanon, if not Iran (for now). The New Statesman echoes warnings made here since the mid-2010s: ‘The age of danger: order is breaking down as the great powers take sides in multiple wars’.
Economic policy also continues to get more populist: although it has no chance of happening, President Biden has proposed a 44.6% capital gains tax, the highest in US history, and a 25% tax on unrealized gains by high net-worth individuals. More realistic, perhaps, France’s opposition has proposed financing the country’s green transition with entirely with QE.
Let’s be frank, it’s hard to see a ‘Golden Path’ for markets ahead. It’s even harder to see ‘The Golden Path’ - a global economic system that allows maximum market/personal freedoms, yet with minimal inequality both domestically and internationally, and so socioeconomic and geopolitical stability. Yet absent that Path, we end up Hamiltonianism or mercantilism, economic war, real war, and a Great-Power-struggle ‘age of danger’.
Bloomberg just made reference to this (‘Geostrategy Industrial Complex Is a Win-Win’) vis-à-vis the real economy, noting corporate and foreign policy elites are talking more to each other, “which is good for both sides”. Yet financial markets continue to ignore foreign policy elites! Where are the macro forecasts adjusted for a world of Great Power struggles? Most still look remarkably similar to ones without that backdrop. (By contrast, note our ‘geopolitical’ work on Europe’s growth and inflation.) Where are the FX, rates, equity, credit, commodity, and property scenarios for a world of Great Power struggles? Again, most still look remarkably similar to ones without that backdrop – correct me if I am wrong, but it seems only our Fed watcher Philip Marey is predicting Trump tariffs would be a roadblock to ongoing Fed cuts in 2025.
Let’s be Frank Herbert.
Bloomberg also praises Hollywood’s ‘Dune 2’ for predicting the future better than Fukuyama for its old-and-new high-tech, feuding Great Houses struggling for control of the Spice without which the economy can’t function, as religion sweeps people to violent jihad. That comparison is true, but there is a deeper parallel to our present situation. Those who have read the Dune series repeatedly know all that backdrop supports two central overarching themes:
First: “Don’t follow charismatic leaders.” Paul Atreides is no hero: he is directly responsible for the deaths of 61 billion people.
Second: “The Golden Path.” Paul doesn’t have the stomach to follow through on what he needs to do for mankind, but his son, Leto II, does. **SPOILER ALERT** He fuses himself with a sandworm to become a dictator for 3,500 years, destroying Spice, space travel, and the economy, to teach people “a lesson they will remember in their bones”: that once they can break free of his reign, which he eventually allows, they should become as diverse and far-flung as possible to never allow anyone or anything to threaten them in their entirety again.
The conflict between humanity's stated desire for peace and their actual need for volatility is the central message of the Dune series.
We built a centralised neoliberal global system that repressed volatility as QE Spice flowed. But while Great Houses thrived, and some got very rich selling shadow-bank Spice derivatives, that system only increased, not decreased, our fundamental vulnerabilities to key threats. Returning to a world of Great Power struggles may ironically create healthier economic systems and societies over time, in some respects.
True, that likely won’t allow such free markets. But while we need some volatility to get stronger --think of Taleb’s anti-fragility-- we don’t need other kinds, like a sandworm swallowing us whole (or the financial market equivalent as past vol-repression has to be unwound), or people launching jihads at home or abroad. Which there is rather too much of right now.
So, Trump fusing with a sandworm may teach us all a geopolitical lesson “in our bones”: does his orange skin reflect excess McMelange consumption even if his eyes aren’t blue-in-blue?
Back to markets: the God Emperor of Dune, Leto II, maintains a complete monopoly on melange, the real currency in the universe; but apart from that, the books don’t say much about rates or FX. I’m just not sure what the Golden Level of rates is on our Golden Path. Then again, neither do central banks. And financial markets mostly have their heads deep in the sand.
