What a difference 24 hours makes. It was just yesterday when, a few hours before the Bank of Japan stunned world markets with its surprise capitulation, we said that a clash had broken out between the trading desks of JPMorgan and Goldman on the all-important question of how long until the global carry trade is unwound.
The first answer came from JPM's co-head of global FX strategy Arindam Sandilya who told Bloomberg TV that “we are not done by any stretch,” adding that "the carry trade unwind, at least within the speculative investing community, is somewhere between 50%-60% complete."
This was countered by Goldman trader Jerry Shen who analyzed the bank's Yen positioning and tactical flow of funds indicator and concluded that investors are actually net long the yen as of this week, which implied that the carry trade has been largely unwound.
