We have written extensively in the past why BofA's monthly Fund Manager Survey (the full report is available to pro subs in the usual place) is a classic example of Garbage In, Garbage Out: in short, it's because the panelists' answers to questions posed by BofA CIO Michael Hartnett is not what is they are actually doing, but what they believe they should be doing. As such it is all noise, and zero signal. Actually we take that back: sometimes it's perfect signal... just in the other direction - like when we said to do the opposite of what the Fund Manager Group said was the most consensus trade of 2024. Remeber "Why The 'Most Consensus Trade' Of 2024 Will Blow Up In The Market's Face" in which we showed this FMS chart according to which everyone predicted lower yields in 2024?
In December, we said to fade it, and here we are two months later with yields about 40 bps higher and rising fast.
